#币安2025Q1市占率 Bitcoin (BTC): $85,500 is the key breakout level
• Current Status: As of April 19, the Bitcoin price is oscillating in a narrow range of $84,200–$85,500, with a daily chart forming an ascending triangle pattern. The short-term direction depends on whether it can hold above the $85,500 resistance level.
• Bullish Signals:
1. On-chain whales have been accumulating at $84,000, with a net outflow of 12,000 BTC from exchanges in a single day, indicating strong long-term holding intentions.
2. Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $97.03 million in a single day (led by BlackRock), with institutional funds supporting the price.
3. The TD Sequential indicator has issued a buy signal on the weekly chart; if it breaks above $86,000, it may target $90,000.
• Trading Suggestions:
o Long Position: Light long positions around $84,000, targeting $85,500–$87,000, with a stop loss at $83,000.
o Short Position: Short at $85,500 under pressure, targeting $83,000, with a stop loss at $86,500.
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2. Ethereum (ETH): $1,580 is the line of life and death
• Key Variables:
1. $1,580 is the liquidation threshold for on-chain staking; falling below may trigger $336 million in leveraged positions to be forcibly closed, accelerating the drop to $1,450.
2. The SEC has prohibited Ethereum ETFs from participating in staking, leading to a short-term lack of institutional fund inflow catalysts.
3. If it breaks above the $1,620 resistance (neckline of the double bottom pattern), the target is $1,680.
• Trading Suggestions:
o Mainly Wait and See: The risk of chasing shorts after breaking below $1,580 is high (extreme market conditions or reversal).
o Rebound Arbitrage: If it stabilizes above $1,600, go long to $1,650, with a stop loss at $1,550.
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