A recent report from global investment bank Standard Chartered is attracting significant attention in the finance and crypto world, forecasting that the supply of stablecoins could skyrocket from $230 billion to $2 trillion by 2028 – nearly ten times the current level. Notably, this scenario could become a reality if the United States passes the GENIUS Act this mid-year.
Shocking forecast: Stablecoins could hit $2 trillion
According to the report, #StandardChartered predicts that the GENIUS Act, if signed into law, will pave the way for a significant development of stablecoins in the U.S. From the current level of $230 billion, the stablecoin market could reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028, equivalent to a tenfold increase in just four years.
The bank emphasizes that this expansion will not only affect the cryptocurrency industry but also reshape the global financial structure, particularly the role of the USD and the U.S. Treasury bond market (T-bills).
U.S. bonds will 'greatly benefit' if stablecoins explode
A direct consequence of the increasing supply of stablecoins is the strong demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. Stablecoins like $USDC (Circle) and USDT (Tether) both require collateral assets, most of which are short-term bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury.
Standard Chartered estimates that:
👉 The development of stablecoins could create an additional demand for $1.6 trillion in T-bills over the next four years.
Notably, this figure is almost equivalent to the amount of new bonds the Trump administration plans to issue in its second term. In other words, the stablecoin market could become the 'default buyer' for U.S. bonds, helping the government fund spending without fully relying on traditional investors like China, Japan, or large investment funds.
The GENIUS Act – The legal lever for stablecoin legalization
Approved by the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on March 14, #GENIUS is a bill designed to standardize and legalize the issuance of stablecoins. The bill sets transparency standards, requires reserve audits, and clearly regulates the scope of operations for issuers in the U.S.
Standard Chartered believes that:
GENIUS has a high probability of being approved by Congress and signed into law by President Trump by mid-2025.
Once the law takes effect, it will open the door for major financial institutions to participate in the stablecoin market in a legitimate, transparent, and standardized manner.
Stablecoin – The new weapon for USD power
Standard Chartered states that stablecoins will become a 'new geopolitical weapon' that helps reinforce the global position of the USD.
As USD-pegged stablecoins become increasingly popular, the demand for U.S. bonds (to serve as collateral) will surge.
This helps the dollar maintain its central role in global finance, even as other countries strive to de-dollarize the international payment system.
The report also cites:
88% of USDC's reserve assets are currently T-bills, with an average maturity of only 12 days.
66% of USDT's assets are also T-bills, indicating a preference for short-term, safe, and highly liquid reserve assets in the stablecoin sector.
Ethereum is rated lower than expected
While very optimistic about stablecoins and the ecosystem surrounding the USD, Standard Chartered has lowered its price outlook for Ethereum (ETH).
Specifically, this bank has lowered its ETH price forecast for the end of 2025 to $4,000, significantly lower than the expectations set in October 2024.
This indicates that Standard Chartered is clearly differentiating between stablecoins and layer 1 tokens, viewing stablecoins as a tool to support the USD, while other blockchains, despite their potential, face many competitive and regulatory challenges.
Impact on users and the crypto market
For users on exchanges like Binance, this information could open up new perspectives:
If stablecoins are more widely accepted and have a clear legal framework, users will be able to trade in a safer and more transparent environment, especially with reputable stablecoins like FDUSD, USDC, and USDT.
However, the $ETH downgrade in forecasts is also a reminder that not all crypto assets are expected to increase in value uniformly; investors need to have a reasonable allocation strategy and closely monitor new legal trends in the U.S.
Conclusion
Standard Chartered has made one of the boldest forecasts for 2025: the supply of stablecoins could reach $2 trillion by 2028 if the U.S. passes the GENIUS Act. This scenario will not only impact the crypto market but also profoundly affect the global financial structure, ushering in a new era for the USD.
⚠️ Risk warning
Investing in cryptocurrency always carries high risk, especially in the context of rapidly changing legal factors. Forecasts from major financial institutions are not guaranteed to materialize. Always carefully consider before investing and do not use funds beyond your means.