Brothers, it is now 4 PM on April 17, 2025, Beijing time, and this Bitcoin wave is quite interesting! Just took a glance at the price, BTC is bouncing around $85,000, with a high today reaching $85,259, but after that peak, it was pushed back down, currently slightly up by 0.42%. Let's analyze what's really happening with this wave!
Technical: Key Levels in Bull-Bear Battle
Bitcoin has been relatively stable these past few days, with a daily three-day rise breaking through the key resistance level of $84,000. The MACD shows a golden cross and the RSI is around 65, looking quite healthy. The short-term target is pointing towards $87,000-$90,000. However, there is significant pressure above, with a pile of sell orders in the $86.5k-$88k range; a volume breakout is needed to take off, otherwise it could easily be pushed back down. Short-term support is seen at $84,000-$84,500, and if it drops below $83k, it might head directly to $81k or even lower.
News: Policy 'Mutual Struggle'
The biggest bombshell today is that Fed Chairman Powell made harsh comments, saying that Trump's tariff policy might push up inflation, causing the market to worry about a halt in interest rate cuts, putting collective pressure on risk assets. On the other hand, Trump suddenly eased tariffs on products like mobile phones and semiconductors, slightly restoring market sentiment, which is why BTC didn’t crash directly. Additionally, there are $2.25 billion in options set to expire today, with the biggest pain point at $82k; the big players might take this opportunity to slam the market and wash out positions, so brothers, pay attention to your positions.
Bull-Bear Covert Battle: Options Market Betting Frenzy
Don't be fooled by the current price fluctuations; the options market has gone wild! The open interest for $100,000 call options has skyrocketed to $1.2 billion, and it’s clear that large players are betting on a breakout. However, the bears are not backing down either, with nearly $1 billion in $70,000 put options accumulated; this bull-bear showdown is likely to get bloody. If it drops below $65k, it could trigger panic selling, but in the long run, the bottom structure of $50k-$70k is very stable, and a real drop could actually be a buying opportunity.
Operational advice: Play it safe and don't be reckless.
In the short term, don't chase high prices; if it pulls back to around $84k, you can try a small long position with a stop loss below $83k. If it really breaks up to $86.5k, remember to take profits in batches, especially around $88k, and watch if RSI is overbought (above 70, reduce positions). For those using leverage, be cautious; the whole network exploded with $156 million yesterday, with long positions accounting for $98 million, and the big players are just waiting to cut losses.
In conclusion, Bitcoin is currently caught in a dual squeeze from policy and technical factors, moving like a 'dance on a tightrope.' Those holding spot positions can calmly watch the show, while contract players should set stop losses and not let price spikes affect their mindset! Let's wait for this wave of options expiration to see where the main force pushes next.
