Brothers, it is now 6 PM Beijing time on May 14, BTC is quoted at $103,356, almost flat in 24 hours (slightly up 0.07%), but beneath the seemingly calm surface, there are undercurrents!
1. Current market situation: High-level consolidation, intensified long-short game
Technical aspect: Daily level, BTC is repeatedly fluctuating between $101,000 and $104,000, MACD shows a high-level death cross, RSI has fallen from the overbought zone, short-term momentum is weakening. The four-hour chart is more intense, with Bollinger Bands tightening, upper pressure at $105,300, lower support at $101,700, the main force is clearly playing the 'high sell low buy' script.
Key level monitoring: Stabilizing above $103,000 may lead to testing the previous high of $105,000; if it breaks below the psychological level of $100,000, it may retest the support at $92,000.
2. On-chain anomalies: Whales fleeing? ETF funds retreat!
Whale selling pressure: Glassnode data shows that old addresses holding over 1,000 BTC have recently been frequently transferring coins to exchanges, a typical 'high position cash-out' operation, with net inflow to exchanges rising to over 2,000 BTC/day.
ETF cooling: BlackRock's IBIT single-day inflow has shrunk, Grayscale's GBTC continues to flow out, yesterday ETF saw a net outflow of $91 million, with institutions showing a clear short-term 'cash out for safety' mentality.
3. Macro benefits VS market discrepancies
CPI cools down + Trump calls: US April CPI drops to 2.3%, Trump urges the Fed to cut interest rates, market risk appetite rebounds, but Goldman Sachs and other major banks still bet on a rate cut delayed until the end of the year, policy uncertainty remains.
Capital rotation: ETH surges against the trend (+4.8% in 24 hours), meme coins are heating up, some funds are being diverted, and BTC's dominance on stage is temporarily coming to an end.
4. Future strategy: Cautious in the short term, faith in the long term
Short-term: $100,000 is the line of life and death, breaking it requires stop-loss; if it stabilizes above $103,000, a small long position can be tested, target $105,000. But remember to set a proper stop-loss, don't hold the position!
Long-term: Halving cycle (April has passed) + ETF fund net inflow exceeds $50 billion this year, supply and demand remain tight, year-end target $70,000-$80,000? No, the big players are calling for $135,000!
Summary: BTC is now like walking a tightrope, with whale selling pressure above and institutions providing support below. In the short term, it looks volatile, but the foundation of the bull market hasn't broken. Remember, don't get shaken out, and don't go all in to gamble on direction! Stay steady, we can win!
(Data as of May 14, 18:00, for more real-time analysis, join my chat room through the trading project!)
