The 'surrender' misunderstood by the world: Essentially, any view that the market has bottomed out is a belief that Trump has already 'surrendered'.

Global markets showed mixed results on Tuesday, waiting for new catalysts.

The good news is that market volatility has significantly slowed down, allowing people to calmly analyze the issues; the bad news is that tariffs are threatening the market rebound, and Trump has initiated investigations into chips and pharmaceuticals before imposing more tariffs.

The liquidation event is not over; the current calm is a misreading of 'Trump's surrender':

First, a true market bottom requires Trump to 'surrender' (reversal or end of tariff policy). But now the market mistakenly interprets 'delaying for 90 days' and 'pausing tariffs on some tech products' as Trump's retreat. If it is a retreat, it is Trump's concession to the market, rather than the tariff policy itself. The situation could explode at any moment.

Second, while the U.S. stock market and U.S. Treasury bonds have stabilized, the selling of the dollar continues, and investors remain cautious about holding dollars—this is partly an emotional response that can exacerbate volatility.

Third, the market has underestimated the economic downturn risks. Although the U.S. is still far from a full recession, the tariff rates have already risen significantly, and any signs of recession in the future will make the market more vulnerable. Policy uncertainty remains very high, and businesses and consumers may continue to be cautious due to the ambiguity of future policy directions, avoiding long-term decisions—this is the worst thing on an economic level.

Fourth, the gold/silver ratio has exceeded the 100 level, a phenomenon that has rarely occurred in history, usually indicating that investors are extremely pessimistic about the economic outlook.

Historically, there have been two instances where the gold/silver ratio reached or exceeded 100:

First time: March 1991 (ratio reached about 100), when the Federal Reserve had just ended the high interest rate cycle of the 1980s, and the United States fell into recession.

Second time: March 2020 (ratio peak reached 125, the highest in history), when the outbreak of COVID-19 triggered global panic, leading to a stock market crash and a collapse of oil prices.

Various signs indicate that the trouble is not over. Now, no news is good news.#巨鲸动向 $BTC