Predictions for the Next Week.

Global Financial Markets

1. Stocks:

• USA: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices may face pressure due to concerns over tariffs proposed by Trump, affecting sectors like technology and consumer goods. However, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could limit losses, with projections oscillating between -1% and +2% in major indices.

• Europe: The Stoxx 600 and the German DAX are expected to remain stable but sensitive to Eurozone inflation data (expected on April 15). Defensive sectors (health, utilities) are favored, while the automotive sector may suffer from trade tensions. The Portuguese PSI may track, focusing on companies like EDP and Galp.

• Asia: The Nikkei (Japan) and Hang Seng (Hong Kong) face uncertainty due to US tariffs and China's response. The Shanghai Composite may be supported by Chinese government stimulus, but with limited gains (+0.5% to +1.5%).

• Global Forecast: Moderate volatility, with investors waiting for clarity on trade policies and economic data (e.g., China's GDP, April 16). Emerging markets, such as Brazil (Ibovespa), may have mixed performance due to the strength of the dollar.

2. Forex:

• The dollar (USD) maintains strength against the euro (EUR/USD between 1.05-1.08) and the yen (USD/JPY near 150), driven by expectations of protectionist policies from the US. For the Portuguese, a weaker euro could make imports more expensive but benefit exports.

• Emerging market currencies (e.g., Brazilian real, South African rand) may depreciate against the USD, impacting commodity-dependent countries.

3. Commodities:

• Oil: Brent is expected to fluctuate between $70-$75 per barrel, with the recent drop in prices alleviating inflationary pressures but sensitive to tensions in the Middle East.

• Gold: Continues attractive as a safe haven, with prices between $2,600-$2,700/oz, potentially rising if geopolitical uncertainty increases.

• Industrial Metals: Copper and aluminum may slightly decline due to the Chinese slowdown but maintain support from renewable energy projects.

Global Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin (BTC):

• Trend: After a strong 2024, driven by the halving and ETFs, Bitcoin is consolidated above $90,000. Global analysts predict it could test $100,000-$110,000 next week if risk sentiment improves, but corrections to $85,000 are possible if there are institutional sell-offs.

• Factors: The possible appointment of a pro-crypto president at the SEC (USA) and corporate adoption (e.g., MicroStrategy) are positive catalysts. However, global tariffs could reduce liquidity in the risk market.

2. Ethereum (ETH):

• Trend: Benefits from growth in DeFi and tokenization of real assets (RWAs). It may move between $3,600-$4,200, with support at $3,400.

• Factors: Approvals of Ethereum ETFs in the US and improvements in the network (e.g., fee reductions) attract institutional investors. Competition with Solana is a risk.

3. Altcoins:

• Solana (SOL): Continues to gain traction in DeFi and NFTs, with forecasts of $220-$280. The Firedancer client may enhance scalability, attracting developers.

• Cardano (ADA): Slower, but with potential in sustainable projects. It could reach $0.55-$0.65 if there are catalysts.

• Others: AI projects (e.g., Fetch.ai, Bittensor) and tokenization (e.g., Ondo Finance) are in focus, but memecoins like Dogecoin may suffer from rotation to more useful assets.

4. Global Regulation:

• USA: A more favorable regulatory environment could boost the market, with Solana and XRP ETFs under discussion.

• Europe: The MiCA (crypto regulation) brings clarity, benefiting exchanges and investors in the EU, including Portugal.

• Asia: China maintains restrictions, but Hong Kong and Singapore attract capital with open policies.

5. Risks:

• Correction: A decline in global stock markets could drag down crypto, with altcoins more vulnerable (-10% to -20% in pessimistic scenarios).

• Geopolitics: Tensions in the Middle East or trade escalation between the US and China may reduce risk appetite.

Outlook for Portuguese

• Opportunities: The global crypto market remains accessible via exchanges like Binance or Kraken, with tax advantages in Portugal (no capital gains tax on crypto, for now). European stocks and global ETFs are options for diversification.

• Cautions: Global volatility requires risk management. Avoid excessive leverage in crypto and monitor macroeconomic news (e.g., ECB decisions, April 17).

• Sources: Websites like Investing.com, CoinGecko, and Bloomberg provide real-time global data. In Portugal, Jornal de Negócios and ECO are useful for local context.