Despite the dramatic fluctuations in Bitcoin's price over the past week and a temporary drop below a key support level, on-chain data reveals an intriguing phenomenon in the market—over 85% of Bitcoin holders are still in profit. According to monitoring by data analysis platform IntoTheBlock, this ratio remained strong even when prices dipped on April 10, once again confirming Bitcoin's resilience as a long-term value storage asset.
Cost and Cycle: The Logic Behind Profitability
IntoTheBlock data shows that the average holding cost of Bitcoin is about $25,800, significantly lower than the recent price range of $60,000 to $70,000. This indicates that most holders entered during the 2023 bear market or at the beginning of this year's upward trend. With the halving approaching in 2024, addresses holding for more than a year account for nearly 70%, demonstrating that the market is shifting from a 'speculation-driven' to a 'strong-holding' mode. Long-term investors are accumulating experience through the market cycles post-first halving—although short-term fluctuations are intense, the pattern of rising bottoms and tops in the medium to long term remains unchanged.
Institutional Entry Solidifies Value Base
In this cycle, the incremental capital brought by Bitcoin ETFs has become an undeniable force. As of early April, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative net inflows of over $12.4 billion, with a large amount of institutional capital building positions in the $40,000 to $50,000 cost range, providing strong support for the market. This explains why, even as prices pull back to below $65,000, most individual investors can still maintain unrealized gains. Meanwhile, on-chain activity indicators show that whale addresses (holding over 1,000 BTC) have recently increased their holdings, suggesting that accumulation at lower levels may be underway.
Short-term Volatility VS Long-term Trends
Market analysts point out that the current pullback may be a healthy correction: the RSI indicator has retreated from the overbought range, and the futures funding rate has returned to neutral levels, reducing the risk of leveraged liquidations. Historical data shows that the main upward wave usually begins 3-6 months after a halving, while short-term adjustments create opportunities for dollar-cost averaging investors. For investors entering at the current price, if Bitcoin reaches the target range of $100,000 to $150,000 predicted by institutions in the future cycle, their profit window will further expand.
The complexity of the Bitcoin market lies in the fact that short-term price fluctuations often run parallel to long-term value narratives. The profit status of 85% of holders not only reflects cost advantages but also validates the investment philosophy that 'holding time is more important than timing the market.' In the face of the double variables of the April halving event and macro policies, delving into on-chain data tracking and understanding cyclical patterns may be the key to navigating through bull and bear markets.