"$ETH is now like a gambler pressed against a knife, with the lower Bollinger Band at 1419 being the last safety rope; if it doesn’t bounce back, it will bleed."
Brothers, keep an eye on the market. The 4-hour K-line on April 12 is more uncomfortable than constipation. The price is stuck in a suffocating range of 1545-1566, closing at 1551, barely hanging above the middle Bollinger Band at 1543. Trading volume has shrunk to 5.15 million, and the dog fund is too lazy to bring in supporting actors for their performance.
Three key signals are clear:
1. This long lower shadow bearish candle resembles the pattern before the crash on March 12 this year, but a whale snuck in 32,000 ETH in the early morning (on-chain evidence), clearly playing the "fake fall to accumulate" trick.
2. MACD is playing a two-step dance below the zero line, with the green bars shrinking to toothpicks; this is the calm before the storm.
3. The purple trend line at 1384 has withstood four sell-offs since January this year, bouncing at least 15% each time it was touched; now there's only 6% space left to this ancestral position.
Looking back at last August's Merge upgrade script, it consolidated for a week before surging 30% on good news. Now, Vitalik has hinted that there will be a Proto-danksharding upgrade in May, which can double the speed of Layer 2; the dog fund might replicate the pump trick.
Operation guide:
1. For spot traders, start building a base position around 1551, add more for every 2% drop, and if it breaks 1520, close your eyes and play dead.
2. For contracts, keep a close watch on the 1580 resistance level; if it breaks, set a take profit at 1650, but the stop loss must be set at 1.5%.
3. Dollar-cost averaging brothers, hold steady; the current price is 18% lower than institutional holding costs, and time can be exchanged for space to guarantee profits.
Tonight at 20:30, the US CPI data will be released. Last month, this data caused ETH to shake 5% in two hours. Combined with internal news on BlackRock's ETH spot ETF, favorable data might replicate the March surprise, while unfavorable news means prepare for a quick exit.
Binance ETH perpetual funding rate is -0.03%; the more the shorts celebrate, the more likely the dog fund is to reverse pump. Remember, retail investors have a memory of only 7 seconds, but a liquidation order can be remembered for a lifetime!
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