Fundamentals:
1. Less than 13 hours after equal tariffs take effect, Trump reversed course and suspended tariffs for 90 days, and during this period significantly reduced them to 10%, while raising tariffs on China to 125%, effective immediately; the three major U.S. stock indices surged, marking the largest single-day increase since October 2008; Bitcoin also rose by more than 6,000 points.
2. Federal Reserve Minutes: All participants believe that given the significant uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, it is appropriate to maintain interest rates unchanged; the U.S. economy faces risks of high inflation and low growth; inflation has risen this year due to tariffs.
3. China has raised tariffs on all U.S. imports from 34% to 84%, officially starting the China-U.S. trade war.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: At 1 AM, Trump temporarily reversed his stance and suspended tariffs for 90 days. The severe market fluctuations caused by such sudden policy changes are hard to avoid in trading, and all we can do is respond calmly and manage risks well. I am currently stuck in a short position on Bitcoin, and the focus now is to overcome the stuck position. Achieving breakeven or even exiting with a profit will allow for a longer and more stable journey in a harmonious market. On the daily chart, driven by sudden policy changes, a large bullish candle was formed yesterday, and the market is currently stagnating around the 835 level, which is also the top position of a downward channel formed by the upper high points. The overall daily trend is still in a downward channel that has not been broken. On the 4-hour chart, the early morning trend showed a large bullish candle, and after a morning spike, it has currently formed a bearish candle. There is significant selling pressure above, and the Asian session may need to adjust further. Recently, focus on policy factors during the U.S. trading hours. In daily operations, pay attention to the resistance at the 825-835 levels above and the support at the 80-79 levels below.
ETH: After hitting a new low on the daily chart, there was a significant rebound, reaching the 7-day moving average on the daily chart before starting to fall back. Currently, the overall daily trend is still in a downward channel that has not been broken, with effective selling pressure above 1780 in the short term. On the 4-hour chart, there was a significant increase with a large bullish candle in the early morning, followed by a slow decline starting in the morning. The Asian trading session is expected to continue to decline, and during the evening U.S. trading hours, focus on the support around the 1550 level. In daily operations, pay attention to the resistance at the 1630-1660 levels above and the support at the 1550 and 1500 levels below.
Altcoins: From the current rebound situation, most altcoins have not outperformed Bitcoin in terms of rebound strength. Some coins involved in the Trump family's WLFI project have seen significant increases, with ONDO leading the way at 20%, while other sector coins have seen smaller gains, indicating that market sentiment has not yet heated up. The continuity of this uncertain policy impact will not last long. Future sustained rises in the market will depend on the support of monetary policy. For the current altcoin market, those who entered at the bottom a few days ago can continue to hold for gains, but it is not recommended to chase prices now.
