Fundamental Analysis:
1. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May has risen to 96.3%;
2. The asset management scale of Ethereum ETF has reached a historic low, with outflows exceeding $1.1 billion in seven weeks;
3. The new chairman of the SEC, Paul Atkins, will take office tomorrow at 4 p.m. Eastern Time. He holds a supportive attitude towards innovation in the crypto market, encourages self-regulation, is friendly towards free markets, and has a relatively loose regulatory stance.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: The research report yesterday clearly stated to focus on the pressure at the 875-885 positions above. The high point during the Asian trading session basically maintained around 875. There was a wave of selling before the US market opened, followed by a rise after the opening, peaking near 885, and then dropped to 864 around 1 a.m. The trend fully meets expectations. On the daily line level, yesterday closed with a large bullish line with a shadow line above. Due to the recent surge in risk aversion in the financial market, Bitcoin, which has 'digital gold' characteristics, shows a weak positive correlation with gold, while the crypto market shows a two-tier differentiation, with Bitcoin rising alone and Ethereum and shanzhai liquidity being weak, overall in a correction. A strong rebound this morning created a new recent high. The 4-hour line entered a fluctuating adjustment after yesterday's rise, with the K-line retracing to the 7-day moving average and continuing to attack. The K-line center keeps moving up, and in the future, focus on the bearish signal of the 4-hour line once again peaking and then closing with a bearish line. For intraday operations, focus on the pressure at the 884-894 positions above and the support at the 874-864 positions below.
ETH: It is obvious from the weak performance of Ethereum and shanzhai that this wave of rising market is basically only Bitcoin with 'digital gold' characteristics. The market's bullish sentiment is more inclined towards Bitcoin, while the risk coefficient of other coins is difficult for the market to accept. The daily line had a high pullback yesterday, closing with a bearish line, and this morning saw a large drop around 1530. The daily trend shows weakness and is still in a relatively bottom position with fluctuations. Looking at the 4-hour line, the adjustment officially began during the European trading session yesterday, with a cross star candlestick formed after a dip this morning, and a slight adjustment is still needed during the Asian trading session. For intraday operations, focus on the support at the 1560-1540 positions below and the pressure at the 1600-1620 positions above.
Shanzhai: When playing with shanzhai spots, one must adhere to the principle that the strong will remain strong, but not through high chasing strategies. In response to recent hot sectors, choose strong individual coins during each rebound phase to play the stage rebound wave market. For example, in the current market, the three active sectors are artificial intelligence, meme, and games. The opportunities in artificial intelligence include TAO, FET, and LPT; in the MEME sector, WIF, PEOPLE, and FLOKI are relatively strong; in the gaming sector, gala, gmt, and sand are relatively strong. You can add these coins to your watchlist and wait for the next buying point to appear, and avoid chasing high.
