The market does not reflect the truth.
It reflects what we believe to be the truth.
Imagine: you see a rope in the dark and think it is a snake.
In reality, it is not a snake.
But if you are scared enough, you will run away.
If the whole village believes that rope is a snake, no one dares to approach.
That belief – even if wrong – has created a new reality.
In finance, "ropes turning into snakes" happen every day.
The market does not operate on cold hard facts.
It operates based on collective belief.
And that is what makes it both attractive and unpredictable.
Bitcoin is the clearest example.
In just a few weeks, the definition of it can change rapidly.
Sometimes it's called 'digital gold.'
Sometimes it's referred to as 'safe haven asset.'
Initially, it was seen as a hedge against inflation.
But when real inflation appears and Bitcoin falls in price, the narrative immediately changes:
Bitcoin resists hyperinflation, not regular inflation.
Bitcoin doesn't change anything.
What changes is our belief about Bitcoin.
When looking at the market, we think we are looking at numbers.
But in reality, we are looking at the general state of mind of people.
A good investor doesn't need to know exactly what the truth is.
They just need to understand what the crowd believes.
George Soros once said:
The market is always in a state of error.
What he means is: Prices are not determined by what is absolutely right.
It is determined by what people think is true.
You can be logically right.
But still lose money.
If the market doesn't believe you.
Conversely, you can be wrong –
And still make money.
As long as the crowd is wrong like you.
So what will happen if one day, the faith in the US dollar begins to waver?
The truth doesn't need to change.
Just enough people need to start doubting.
Everything will change.
Singapore is reevaluating America's role.
Germany wants to reclaim its gold reserves from America.
Mark Carney – former governor of the Bank of England – acknowledges:
The world is no longer what it was yesterday.
No one says the dollar is about to collapse.
But people have started to imagine a different world.
A world that doesn't rely entirely on the US dollar.
Belief creates reality.
The dot-com bubble burst not because companies were making large profits.
But because people believed they would.
Bitcoin is the same now.
It doesn't necessarily have to become a currency for the world.
It just needs enough people to believe that it can.
If enough people believe Bitcoin is a safe haven asset,
It will be a safe haven asset.
If no one believes,
No matter how great it is,
Its value cannot increase.
The market does not reward absolute truth.
It rewards the common belief of the crowd.
This is both frightening.
And captivating.
Frightening – because you can't just rely on data and logic to make money.
Captivating – because it opens opportunities for those who understand crowd psychology.
So don't ask:
What is the truth?
Ask yourself:
What will the crowd believe next?
