Fundamentals:
1. The 'reciprocal tariff' will officially take effect at noon today; this wave of impact has led to a reduction of $10 trillion in global stock market value since the 3rd of this month. In this extreme environment (global trade war + bear market), referencing historical extreme volatility, the market value of cryptocurrencies could shrink by 50% in a short time;
2. As the 'reciprocal tariff' policy is about to take effect, on Tuesday, the hawk will sign the latest executive order to raise tariffs on China to 104%. The additional 104% tariff will take effect from noon today, causing global markets to fall into panic selling again. On Tuesday morning, global indices surged due to optimistic expectations of trade negotiations, but then during the U.S. trading hours, under the impact of the tariff news, market sentiment reversed, and the gains quickly evaporated and turned into a decline.
3. Federal Reserve's Goolsbee: Concerned about the return of high inflation.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: Influenced by the global trade war and the international financial panic selling wave, Bitcoin has entered a rapid downward trend in the short term. During yesterday's Asian trading session, there was a rebound due to easing tariff negotiations and regional rescue efforts. In the recorded video last night, it was mentioned that this is just the beginning of a financial war, and the defensive measures appearing during the process are a normal sequence of play. The trend will not change in the short term; this is a global financial and trade war. Looking at the daily line, it broke below the recent support at the 815 level on Sunday, and since mid-March, the trading has basically formed a new trapped position (selling pressure area), which aligns with what I said last week: the market's defense at the 815 level aims to create a trapped position. The recent rebound high points on the daily line are also right at the 81 level, and the overall trend of the daily line continues to maintain a fluctuating downward trend, currently in the sixth wave of the downward journey. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the V-shaped rebound formed a high point at 81 two days ago, and it has currently stopped falling at the 745 position. However, the smaller time frames are still in a downward state and have not rebounded quickly like on Monday after a large volume drop. Today's market is more about waiting for the results of the trade negotiations to trigger a more intense and deeper market movement. For intraday operations, continue to focus on short positions.
ETH: From the overall trend this year, the rebound strength after each stage of decline from the previous 2600-2850, 2100-2350, and 1760-2050 indicates that Ethereum is very weak. The daily line trend is in a steady downward state, and the bottom position of this round of decline has not yet appeared. Be cautious with bottom-fishing strategies; the daily line maintains a fluctuating downward trend. Looking at the 4-hour line, compared to the major coin's 'door drawing' trend, Ethereum seems more likely to form a fishing shape. On the daily line, key resistance to watch above is at the 1440-1470 level, and key support below is at the 1360-1330 level. In the short term, the ultimate target for Ethereum is temporarily around the 1100 point.
Altcoins: It was clearly stated yesterday that the spot rebound is not a buy signal; it is just a form of market easing. The possibility of achieving certain individuals' goals is low, but the impact of prolonged fluctuations is indeed significant. The key to the stage rebound market is to refer to the phase-bottoming signals of the major coins during their decline, and currently, the market is only suitable for playing in the stage rebound market, not for medium-term value investment. A highly sustainable upward market will inevitably require a long bottoming process. Continue to hold cash and wait for bottoming signals before taking action!
