Discussion on hot topics:
Brothers, let me tell you that today is the lunar calendar 312! Doesn’t that sound a bit absurd? The current market is practically a big news market; what is a news market?
The market trend relies entirely on news; one moment this news comes out, the next another news pops up, causing everyone to feel anxious. But fortunately, the market is starting to get used to this rhythm and is slowly desensitizing.
Because all the bad news has basically been released, it's now a matter of whether any good news can emerge before these bad news lands. This is a window period; trading is about playing expectations, and speculation is the process.
So how do market tops and bottoms form? Simply put, it's about which side can’t hold up anymore, when the money runs out, and real cash is on the line. So the question is, does the current market lack money?
Just look at the 10% fluctuations in the Nasdaq in a single day, liquidity is still there; it just needs a spark to ignite everyone’s enthusiasm.
Back to Bitcoin, it broke 80k last night and then this morning it went soft again, dropping back to around 74.6k. This rebound can be considered completely over. It didn't even get a chance to touch 81k; the pace is incredibly fast!
I personally feel that it’s very likely it will dip to the range of 74 to 68.8k, then bounce back to 73.8k, test around 66.3k, and finally make another rebound. To put it simply, it’s a roller coaster where it dips first, then pulls back up.
As for Ethereum, I guess no one wants to look at it anymore. If I held spot ETH, I'd be pretty annoyed too. To be honest, Ethereum itself isn't that problematic; the complaints are mainly about Ethereum and the foundation being too laid-back and not keeping up with the times.
The market is in such chaos, and they don't even come out to say something to calm things down; there isn't even an effort to stabilize emotions. In this regard, Vitalik isn't as good at handling things as Chengzi.
If you're still losing money playing short-term in this market, I believe there's only one reason: you're going against the trend. When it drops to a low point, you think you can catch the bottom, but what happens? You catch the bottom, and it catches you!
So, in the short term, going long can only get you some small gains; don’t be greedy. This is not yet a deep bear market; if it really becomes a deep bear market and you still play like this, even if you have a gold mine at home, it will get burned out. After a few main downturns, you’ll definitely be beaten down.
The monthly and weekly trends are clearly bearish, and the daily and hourly charts are weak. This is a weak market; in a weak market, you can only short. If you haven't shorted in the past two years, you've already eaten well. This year and next, if you do less contrarian long trading, you can at least survive. Note that this means don’t go long against the trend, not that you should always blindly short.
Looking at the trend:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 77300
Second resistance level: 76200
Support level reference:
First support level: 74700
Second support level: 73700
Today's suggestion:
Currently, Bitcoin is still in a downtrend. Even if there’s a slight rebound in the short term, don’t be too optimistic. It will still drop after the rebound; it’s too early to say we’ve hit the bottom.
In the current situation, 76.2K to 77.3K is a resistance range; there might be a slight technical rebound, but the probability of breaking through this range is low.
Current lows are often broken, which accelerates downward pressure and forms an N-shaped decline. When there’s a chance for a very short-term rebound near support, if you want to be cautious, you can wait to see if the price can reclaim the support after breaking it again. If it can't reclaim and turns into resistance, then you might consider shorting.
4.9 Price Band Prediction:
Long entry reference: not applicable for now
Short entry reference: short lightly in the 77300-78000 range; target: 76200-74700-73700
