The master discusses hot topics:
Last night, I didn’t wait for Bitcoin to break the historical high, and then today when I woke up, I saw it broke through the psychological barrier of 110k. Logically, I should be happy, right? But you and I both know that in this market, retail investors have no sense of participation anymore. What’s rising is the K-line of big players; retail investors only deserve to be the background, even clapping seems excessive.
The market has been moving too fast every afternoon these days, and there were two days without articles, so let’s summarize. Last night, Bitcoin surged to 109845, then as a routine homage to tradition, it experienced a break, a rapid drop, and the usual pattern, hitting a low of 106k, washing out a wave of people.
Ethereum is also cooperating, dropping from 2610 directly back to 2450, smashing back to the support level from a few days ago. What does this mean? In simple terms, although it broke the new high, the overall technical structure hasn’t been clouded by emotions.
The key is that the U.S. dollar index has dropped below 100, and logically, Bitcoin, which has U.S. stock attributes, should follow the downward trend. However, it hasn’t, so it can only be understood that the favorable news about stablecoin legislation has propped up the price in the short term.
The question is, is this wave of hot money here for tourism or to settle down? If U.S. bonds continue to have problems, and if this bit of liquidity in the crypto circle is not drawn out to save the situation, then that would be truly bizarre.
Currently, Bitcoin is above 111k; as for whether the next stop is 120k or 150k, who knows? However, the master underestimated the reality of institutional control. The coins are too heavily concentrated in their hands. With a bit of small capital, they can pump and dump, cutting a wave of shorts and then a wave of longs.
The master believes that there will be questions about why Bitcoin is rising. Is it digital gold or a safe-haven asset? Don’t deceive yourself; the truth is that money has been pulled out from the dollar, U.S. bonds, and U.S. stocks, and just a little bit of that money comes out. If only 1% is allocated to Bitcoin, that’s enough for it to soar. Note, it’s allocation, not FOMO chasing the rise! This point must be clarified.
As for why Bitcoin is rising sharply while altcoins look like dead dogs, it’s because what drives Bitcoin is new money from outside the circle, serious big funds. The altcoins are the natives of the crypto circle, very astute, and when they can’t rise, they prepare to escape.
So the current question is whether the main force of altcoins is taking advantage of Bitcoin's high to escape, or if they will pull one last wave for self-rescue before retreating? At present, the master believes it is more likely that they cannot push up + will slip away.
The most critical point is that now everyone only sees the optimism of Bitcoin, forgetting its deep binding with U.S. stocks. Once U.S. stocks have a big pullback, do you really think Bitcoin can pretend not to drop? Don’t be foolish!
The master observes the trend:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 113300
First resistance level: 112500
Support level reference:
Second support level: 108500
First support level: 106500
Today's suggestion:
After Bitcoin broke its historical high, it is currently still fluctuating at a high level. Since it has refreshed its historical high, it is easy to see profit-taking at this high level. Therefore, in terms of operation, focus on the high-level fluctuation range, as well as whether it can stabilize within the upward channel.
Since the upper space has been opened, it is very difficult to accurately predict where the top will be in the short term. Therefore, integers like 113300, 112500 can be viewed as psychological resistance levels.
Currently, Bitcoin is in a new high area, it is recommended to adopt a wait-and-see approach, waiting for the market to form a fluctuation range at a high level before judging the resistance level will be more reasonable.
If Bitcoin is to maintain its current upward structure, 108.5K is the key support level that needs to be held. Currently, 108.5K~111K can be viewed as a short-term fluctuation range.
Compared to volatile markets, constructing a horizontal fluctuation range at a high level before moving upward will be healthier. If there is an adjustment, 106.5K can be regarded as a potential buying opportunity.
Currently maintaining a bullish rebound mindset, while closely observing the changes in the small cycle’s top candlestick patterns, and flexibly adjusting strategies based on market dynamics. Since it is at a phase high, aggressive chasing the rise is not recommended; instead, wait for a pullback to obtain a better entry cost.
5.22 The master's segmented prediction:
Long entry reference: 107150-108500 range to buy in batches. Target: 112500-113300
Short entry reference: Not applicable
If you genuinely want to learn something from a blogger, you must continuously follow, rather than jumping to conclusions after watching a few market movements. This market is filled with performers; today they show long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, seemingly 'catching tops and bottoms every time,' but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, self-consistent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping on the bandwagon only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; only through long-term observation and deep understanding can you discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
