1. Short-term Shock: Plummeting and Market Panic #美国加征关税

• Severe Price Volatility: On April 2, 2025, after Trump announced tariff policies, Bitcoin's price plummeted from $88,500 to $82,000, a single-day decline of over 10%. Market panic intensified, and on April 3, it briefly fell below $75,000, with total liquidation amounts reaching $1.3 billion. By April 8, prices remained between $76,300 and $80,000, with market sentiment in the 'extreme fear' zone (fear index 28).

• Liquidity Contraction and Leverage Liquidation: The sharp decline in U.S. stocks (S&P 500 down 5%) triggered a chain sell-off in the crypto market, with Bitcoin's correlation to the Nasdaq rising to 0.87. High-leverage contracts (overall leverage rate of 56x) accelerated the price decline, with over 280,000 investors liquidated within 24 hours, amounting to $877 million.

• Miner Cost Pressure: The cost of importing Chinese mining equipment has increased by 20%-30% due to tariffs, shrinking profits for U.S. mining companies, and small to medium miners face risks of industry reshuffling.

2. Medium-term Game: Safe-Haven Demand and Policy Games

• Inflation Expectations and Rate Cut Window: Tariffs have pushed up the U.S. core inflation rate by 0.8 percentage points, which may force the Fed to delay rate cuts or even raise rates, putting short-term pressure on Bitcoin prices. However, if the risk of economic recession increases (Goldman Sachs predicts a 45% probability), the Fed may cut rates by 25-50 basis points by the end of 2025, releasing liquidity to support Bitcoin's rebound.

• Safe-Haven Logic and Policy Signals: During the 2019 trade war, Bitcoin trading volume surged by 250%. If the global economy slows down (IMF predicts global growth will drop to 2.5%), Bitcoin may again exhibit safe-haven properties. If the 'Strategic Bitcoin Reserve' plan promoted by the Trump administration is implemented, it could attract institutional funds.

• Technical Recovery Potential: If Bitcoin stabilizes at the support level of $78,500, it may rebound to $84,000-$85,000; if it falls below $70,000, it could trigger programmatic selling down to $65,000.

3. Long-term Potential: Dollar Substitution and Strategic Positioning

• Erosion of Dollar Hegemony: The essence of tariff policy is the 'cost of using the dollar', which may accelerate the global 'de-dollarization' in the long term. China's rare earth export controls and the growth of global stablecoin trading volume (reaching $23 trillion in March 2025) provide an alternative space for Bitcoin. If the purchasing power of the dollar decreases by 10%, Bitcoin's theoretical price increase could reach 10%-15%.

• Institutional Acceptance and Supply Contraction: The U.S. Bitcoin ETF has absorbed over $50 billion in funds, and after the halving, miners' daily selling volume has reduced to 200-300 BTC. Additionally, institutions like MicroStrategy are hoarding coins (holding 447,000 BTC), leading to long-term supply tightening.

• Geopolitical and Technological Changes: Supply chain crises (e.g., Vietnam's 80% reliance on Chinese intermediate goods) and the proliferation of AI technology may enhance Bitcoin's decentralized value, similar to the 300% increase during the 2020 pandemic.

4. Risks and Uncertainties

• Policy Reversal: Trump's tariff policy has a 'boomerang effect'; should countries retaliate with tax hikes that elevate global stagflation, the Fed may be forced to tighten monetary policy, suppressing Bitcoin's rebound.

• Regulatory Risks: The U.S. SEC's ambiguous stance on Ethereum ETFs and the EU's plans to impose tariffs on $5 billion worth of U.S. goods may weaken confidence in the crypto market due to policy uncertainty.

• Technical Breakdown Risk: Ethereum has fallen below its realization price ($2,300), and staking yields have plummeted to 3.1%. If the ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to decline (0.0186), it may drag down the overall market.

Summary #分散资产

In the short term, U.S. tariff policies are suppressing Bitcoin through market panic, liquidity contraction, and miner cost pressure, with prices likely fluctuating between $70,000 and $85,000. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate cut window and the warming of safe-haven demand, which could see Bitcoin return to the $90,000-$100,000 range. In the long term, if U.S. dollar hegemony weakens and supply chain crises worsen, Bitcoin could break through $120,000-$150,000, becoming a strategic asset in the reshaping of the global order. Investors should be wary of policy reversals and technical breakdown risks, managing leverage wisely and reserving funds for potential buy-ins. #风险回报比