Master discusses hot topics:
The fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment of the market these days are no longer effective; everything depends on what Trump says. Technically, divergence, oversold conditions, and support from major moving averages seem to be calling for a rebound, right?
I wanted to short on small highs, waiting for a second test to enter steadily. But as soon as Trump opened his mouth, it reversed directly, and BTC jumped 10%, breaking my defense. Yesterday morning, the master calmed down and wrote a bunch of market analyses, but why didn’t he publish it? Because...
With Trump around, any analysis is useless; the market is entirely swayed by his words. Everyone has seen the tariff situation; the pressure from Trump has already led the risk market astray. The panic index even broke 60 yesterday afternoon, and the volatility expectations are the same as in the past two years.
The last time it was this high was in August 2024, at 65.73. Before that, there was the economic recession in March 2020, where the V panic index reached 85. When it hits 50, the US stock market is basically considered a bear market. What’s more troubling is that the tariff issue is not over, and GDP data is coming at the end of the month.
So April is really tough, not because of a one-sided market, but because there are too many events and too much uncertainty. I have to be on edge when making trades, fearing that Trump’s words will ruin my plans.
Back to Bitcoin, the master believes this wave of decline is not over. The area around 74460 yesterday afternoon is just a consolidation; after a brief hourly level rebound today to tomorrow, it still has to go down. The monthly line is about to cross down; in fact, the master has said before that the bull market is over, but he didn't want to dampen everyone’s spirits too early.
Strictly speaking, the bull market in the first half of the year is definitely over. After the interest rate cut in June, there will be a wave of rebound in the third quarter; a daily upward retracement is inevitable, but after peaking, there will be a deep bear market next year.
This also aligns with the four-year halving cycle of Bitcoin. The master believes this cycle is not broken; the market has just changed a bit. If Bitcoin has three consecutive negative monthly candles, May must close positively, or it will be disastrous.
If May can close positively, then Bitcoin must stand at 88.5 to 89.6K. Otherwise, if it continues to close negatively, the next major adjustment may drop to 73 to 66K.
So, if we get through April, May might be a bit better. But if everyone sees a rebound and shouts bull market, that would be too naive. The market is like this now; we can only react to the situation.
Master observes the trend:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 83100
Second resistance level: 81400
Support level reference:
First support level: 78500
Second support level: 77000
Today's suggestion:
The first resistance level of 81.4K is the previous low point of the earlier support, so it must be broken to expect to solidify the bullish trend. Currently, as this is a rebound from the low point, this is also a strong resistance. The second resistance is in the area where the moving averages are converging, so there will be a short-term adjustment.
The first support level will also be broken as volatility increases, so buying in batches around 77k to 78.5k is a relatively suitable strategy for the short term.
The candlestick with a significant increase in trading volume yesterday is currently the bottom. A V-shaped rebound indicates that maintaining the first and second support levels during the adjustment also helps raise the low.
In today's trading, due to a significant trading volume at the bottom, the short-term bottom is only temporarily formed. If the closing low is raised during the adjustment, a short-term rebound strategy can be considered.
4.8 Master’s wave segment pre-set:
Long entry reference: not currently referenced
Short entry reference: light short position in the 81400-82400 range, target: 80000-78500-77000