Recently, it has been one of the fastest days to lose money since entering the crypto market. From the sudden crash of Bitcoin last night to the limit down of thousands of A-share stocks this morning, after not paying attention to my account situation for a long time, I roughly estimated that I must have lost several hundred. This afternoon, the dramatic drop in U.S. futures caused Ethereum to hit a nearly two-year low, and during a critical moment in on-chain lending, a repayment failure due to network issues led to a complete liquidation. Since the winter of two years ago, it has been a lonely play.
There are still some comforting words, which is that the existing batch of zero-cost chips and the few remaining Bitcoin positions. It really feels quite helpless to think about it. When the American election took place last year, ordinary retail investors in the crypto market exerted all their efforts to support Trump in every way they could. Even if it was just tweeting their expectations on X, as soon as Trump took office, he gave us a big blow, followed by a series of increasingly severe blows. The two-cent miss in Pennsylvania has become the biggest pain in the hearts of crypto people recently!
Trump's strongest tariffs undoubtedly have a significant global shock intensity right now. More than 50 countries have already softened their stance and actively negotiated the final tariff policy. Currently, only the East is making a strong counterattack globally, including Canada, which has also been vocal, but they are likely to ultimately soften and retreat.
In the view of my uncle, the tariff policy is merely an economic tool of Trump, rather than a final political objective. Since last Thursday, the U.S. stock market, the A-shares, and the Japanese and Taiwanese stock markets have all plummeted. Whether other places can withstand this for long, my uncle cannot say, but it is highly likely that the U.S. cannot endure it. Trump is calculating the economic aspect; the main purpose of the tariff war is to reconstruct the U.S. manufacturing system, promote the return of manufacturing, and create jobs, rather than forcing everyone to beat each other senseless.
In the past four days, Trump has called on Powell three times to face the matter of interest rate cuts. Logically, if the U.S. stock market fails under pressure and triggers a circuit breaker, an emergency interest rate cut will be put on the agenda. In fact, after the recent massive shocks in the global financial market, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates twice this year has approached the probability of five times in a year. The probability of a rate cut in May has risen from less than 1% to 40%. The black swan is getting closer, and at this point, we can only hope that the last blow to the U.S. stock market lands quickly.
Regarding the cycle, at this point, my uncle believes that those of us still alive in the market must maintain necessary confidence in the face of future potential storms. Trump's core strategy, besides tariffs, is interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve has always emphasized that inflation remains high, but according to the current market reality, the drastic drop in oil prices is, to some extent, serving to offset the negative impacts of inflation, which is why Trump claims that they currently have no inflation. Once Powell backs down, the trend will reverse.
As for whether we have hit the bottom in the short term, it is certainly not the case right now. In terms of time cycles and price cycles, the prices of the vast majority of tokens are already very close to the turning point range of this bull market. The market has already seen bloody chips, with retail investors and large holders continuously cutting losses and leaving.
There is nothing new on Wall Street; human nature will never change. When the frenzy of leverage ends, the tide of liquidity surges out, and true value will eventually be reborn from the rubble.
BTC: On-chain data for Bitcoin, especially the turnover rate of large holders, is still maintaining an extremely low level. From this data, it can be seen that at least the current market state shows that the main players' panic emotions have not yet been expressed through the turnover of chips, indicating that they believe the current market situation is still insufficient to generate enough fear, which stems from a long-term judgment on future trends within the cycle. A significant reason for the short-term crash is that when liquidity is scarce, a small number of chips have a heavy impact on market depth. Technically, after Bitcoin broke below 81,600 points, the lower range for support is between 73,000 and 68,000 points, with the intraday low at 74,500 points, just a step away from the nearest support range. Whether it can touch this in the short term depends largely on the pressure situation of the U.S. stock market, and it is likely that after a short-term adjustment, it will link up to hit a new low. The upper market reversal indicator is set at the daily line breakthrough of 90,000 points. Currently, the bullish volume is severely insufficient, but the Bitcoin price below 75,000 points is already in the range where bottom fishing can begin. This content does not constitute investment advice, but my uncle still hopes that regardless of the current position situation, when opportunities truly arise, everyone can overcome fear and bravely go all-in on Bitcoin.
ETH: The intensity of the Ethereum crash is stronger than that of most altcoins. The on-chain liquidation of over 100,000 Ethereum has directly caused a chain reaction that has crashed half of the crypto market. Based on past experience, if there are still stubborn large holders, and if they are not at the level of someone like Sun, they are likely to be completely wiped out.
For the altcoin part: wait for the news to land, and don’t let panic cloud your eyes. If you have heavily invested in altcoins but haven't dared to stop-loss, if another steep drop occurs, you can directly place a triple order on the coin based on its value, with at most 30% of your position. This ensures that even if it drops 99%, you won't be liquidated, as long as this coin doesn't get delisted, this operation is likely to be safe. Other matters can be discussed in the comments section.
The fear and greed index is at 23 today.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot assets!
