Overall market situation.
🩸 Bloody Monday: the price broke $82K and rapidly fell below $75K. Our previous main scenario for the short position worked perfectly, targets achieved.
📏 Key S/R levels.
R3: 81,227.
R2: 80,182.
R1: 79,536.
Pivot Point: 78,491.
S1: 77,446.
S2: 76,800.
S3: 75,755.
For some time, the price may be driven between S1 and S2. This is a consolidation zone after the downward impulse. But the game is just beginning.
☁️ Ichimoku Cloud.
Price is far below the cloud.
The cloud ahead — bearish, expanding.
Tenkan-sen < Kijun-sen, price is far from them (oversold).
Lagging Span below price and cloud.
➡ Result: complete bearish control. We are in "no-man's land" — a pure short zone.
🔁 MACD.
Strongest bearish divergence.
The fast line is far below the signal line.
The histogram is red, but slightly decreasing — a flat/correction is possible, but not a reversal.
➡ The downward impulse is still dominant, the correction may be false.
〽️ Stochastic RSI.
Deep oversold condition.
Slight reversal up, but so far without confirmation.
➡ There is a hint of a technical bounce, but without volume it will be a "dead cat".
📊 Volumes.
There are huge clusters of sales on the drop.
The last green candle — low volume, weak bounce.
➡ Bulls are not participating → the downward impulse is not exhausted.
💡 Trading ideas.
🟥 Scenario 1 (main) — Continuation of the decline.
Entry into short: $77,500–77,800 (retest of the resistance zone).
Stop-Loss: $78,500.
TP1: $76,800.
TP2: $75,755.
TP3: $74,500.
This is a scenario of playing out a "false recovery" — classic in a bearish impulse.
🟩 Scenario 2 — Bulls' trick.
Entry into long: upon breaking $78,500 with a 4H confirmation.
SL: $77,200.
TP1: $79,500.
TP2: $80,200.
TP3: $81,200.
Chance of realization — ~30%. A strong volume and short squeeze are needed.
🔮 What's next?
We are at a point where either another -10% drop occurs, or an aggressive short squeeze begins. But for now, the scenario favors shorting — Ichimoku, MACD, volumes, and levels speak for themselves.
🧠 P.S.
If you are still waiting for a "bounce to $90K", you need not analysis, but psychotherapy. We are not in a bull run, we are in a trap of expectations. And the more people believe in it — the deeper the drop will be.