Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just hit its 1W MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since September 06 2024, while completing the first 1D Death Cross since August 09 2024. This is a critical double combo development as last time those conditions emerged it was a bullish signal.
Despite the theoretically bearish nature of the Death Cross, the last one on 1D was formed just four days after the market's previous major long-term bottom of August 05 2024. That bottom was exactly on the level that the market hit today, the 1W MA50.
The 1W RSI sequences among the 2 fractals are identical and if it wasn't for the abysmal negative market fundamentals regarding the back-and-forth tariffs, that would be an automatic long-term buy entry, the 3rd on of this Bull Cycle.
The only condition we can technically rely on right now, amidst the stock market crash, is for the weekly candle to close above the 1W MA50, as it did on August 05 2024. In that case and of course if and only if the trade war gets under control (and/ or the Fed makes an urgent rate cut), we can expect a new long-term Bullish Leg to begin towards $150k and above.
Failure to address those concerns and a 1W candle close below the 1W MA50, can result into a stronger sell-off towards $50000 and the next long-term technical Support level of the August 05 2024 Low (49150). That would also be a major Support cluster as the 1W MA200 (gray trend-line) is just below that level (and holding since October 16 2023) and by the time of the drop, the market may test that as well.
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