Bloodbath, unbearable to look at, these words seem insufficient to describe today's market brutality.
For the stock market, a drop of less than 2% is called a decline, around 3% is called a significant drop, around 4% is called a crash, while around 8% can be referred to as 'plummeting, collapse'. Today many markets meet the definition of 'plummeting'.
This sell-off seems to be far from over:
1. The market is operating in a downward direction, accompanied by soaring volatility and enormous trading volume. All of this tells us that this is just the beginning, and it has already spread to every market.
2. The Trump administration and the Federal Reserve have made no policy response to this wave of major market declines, which increases uncertainty. In the past, during significant declines, there were always people stepping up to reassure the market, but this time it was 'empty'.
· The true 'circuit breaker' that ended the sell-off was the message from Trump, but he said, 'I can't tell you' what will happen next in the market.
· Notably, Fed Chairman Powell's remarks last Friday made no mention of the recent stock market crash, nor did he indicate that the Fed was monitoring the stock market sell-off.
· We cannot rule out the possibility of a short-term rebound at some stage, but a more sustained rebound requires a policy shift.
3. This wave of decline may also be beyond Trump's expectations. The impact of the reciprocal tariff policy is not that significant, as most of it was already reflected last Thursday, since US stock futures stabilized on Friday morning. However, the countermeasures came too quickly and too large (completely reciprocal), which scared the market.
4. Now it's a matter of who can hold on longer. Since we have already endured the previous sharp decline, the situation has the potential to escalate further. The US may impose secondary tariff measures, and China or the EU may target US service exports. By then, even if inflation is far above target levels, the Fed will face pressure to cut rates, and global financial stability may be in jeopardy.
5. Goldman Sachs released a report today titled (Countdown to Recession), reanalyzing the impact of tariffs and adjusting its predictions for Fed interest rate cuts.
This week is once again a week of closely watching news and extreme fluctuations.