The cryptocurrency market is once again entering a zone of uncertainty: the price of Bitcoin is showing a decline, and many investors are wondering — is this a regular correction or the beginning of a full-fledged bear trend?
The metric of realized price, segmented by coin age, comes to the rescue. Special attention should be paid to the so-called 'death cross' — a situation where the realized price of new investors (coins younger than 1 month) crosses the realized price of more experienced holders (coins younger than 6 months) from top to bottom. Such moments have historically signaled the beginning of a market correction.
What does the chart show?
The last 'death cross' was recorded 28 days ago.
On average, such a phase lasted about 85 days, indicating that the market may remain in correction for another approximately 2 months.
The chart also shows that in past cycles, similar crossings did not always mark the beginning of a bear market — often they were limited to a deep, but temporary correction.
Important: the current price has not broken the annual moving average (MA), which also supports the thesis that we are not yet in a bear market.
Why is this important?
Understanding the behavioral dynamics of investors is key to making the right decisions. When short-term holders panic and sell at a loss, while long-term holders continue to accumulate — this is often just a phase of market cleansing, not a change in the global trend.
What’s next?
If the current structure remains, we can expect:
The end of the correction by June 2025
Potential recovery of demand from long-term investors
Sustained support above MA, which will confirm the preservation of the bullish scenario
However, if MA is broken and the behavior of long-term holders changes — the scenario may shift towards a more prolonged decline.
Summary
Now is not the time for panic, but a moment for calm analysis. The metrics show that the market is in a healthy phase of correction, not at the beginning of a crash. It remains to wait for the pressure from short-term sellers to subside, and the upward trend to continue.