🔍 Market structure: consolidation before a breakout
BTC is in sideways accumulation. The last 2 days — a clear range of 83,500 – 82,000. Volumes are decreasing, candle bodies are getting smaller — a sign of fading volatility before an impulse.
☁️ Ichimoku Cloud
The price is in a cloud.
The cloud is narrow and sideways, which is always a signal of consolidation and uncertainty.
The tenkan-sen line is below the price → weak bullish support.
The kijun-sen line is above the price → slight pressure from above.
📌 Conclusion:
The cloud indicates: the market is in a phase of balance, but a potential exit could be downward, as the price cannot break the upper boundary of the cloud.
📊 Volumes: decrease in activity
No aggressive buying.
Strong green volumes were observed on April 3 — there was an impulse, but it did not hold.
New candles are weak, with uniform volumes — participants are waiting for a signal.
📈 MACD: bearish pressure
MACD lines have crossed down.
The histogram has moved into the negative zone.
A decline with a small angle — this is prolonged bearish pressure, not an impulse.
📌 Conclusion:
The short signal is present, but it is not aggressive. This is a "smoldering bearish wave."
📉 Stochastic: attempt to bounce, but...
Stochastic has exited the oversold zone.
But at the moment, there is a decline after touching the 70 level.
There is still potential for further decline.
📏 Fibonacci levels
The grid from the recent local low (~77,800) to the high (~88,500):
38.2% — $84,300 (key resistance, the price has not overcome it)
50% — $83,150 (currently being tested as resistance)
61.8% — $82,000 (if we break it — the path to $80K opens)
💡 Trading ideas
🟢 Long scenario (aggressive):
Entry: upon breaking and holding above $84,300 (38.2 Fibo level and cloud)
Confirmation: increase in volumes and the candle closes above the level
Targets: $85,800 → $87,000 → $88,500 (previous high)
Stop: below $82,500 (exit if the breakout turns out to be false)
Alternative: a bounce from the $82,000 zone (61.8% Fibo) with a "double bottom" pattern — a more conservative entry.
🔴 Short scenario (priority):
Entry: upon breaking the $82,000 level downward (61.8% level + lower boundary of the range)
Confirmation: volumes are rising, the candle confidently closes below
Targets: $80,800 → $79,300 → $77,800
Stop: above $83,300
‼️ With an acceleration of the decline, a local minimum may be updated.
🧭 What position is a priority?
At the moment:
Volumes are weakening
Price is under the cloud
MACD is in the negative
Stochastic is turning down
➤ Priority — short.
But confirmation is needed by breaking $82,000. If we see an unexpected spike in volumes and a breakout above $84,300 — bulls are back in play.