Last night, Old Powell's message was very clear: the inflation situation is not good, and the Fed cannot act right now. Don't even think about rate cuts in May, and don't rush to discuss 'when to cut rates'; just don't think about it. I would summarize his recent style in one sentence—neither hawkish nor dovish, firmly standing in the middle, doing nothing.

Old Powell is, in fact, a 'master of expectation management'. He sees that recent inflation expectations have risen again due to increased tariffs, and his professional training does not allow him to play dumb. Also, don't forget an important background: he is actually quite unhappy with Trump's style of casually intervening in the Fed and talking about raising tariffs at will. He is now guarding not just the policy line but also his own position in history; after all, anyone doing this job wants to leave behind some 'I was so stable back then' remarks.

Among the content discussed last night, there were two small details that were particularly interesting:

1. Old Powell said that the Fed cannot prevent a recession; it can only step in once a recession has arrived. But didn't he cut rates by 100 basis points in advance last year? Isn't that like slapping himself in the face?

2. Even funnier is that last night was not even a monetary policy meeting; it was just his speech, and as a result, Trump couldn't help but urge for rate cuts on social media. The question is, if you don't hold a meeting first, who are you cutting rates for? The outcome of this game between the president and the Fed has actually been written long ago—Trump will win because he is the president. Old Powell isn't clueless; he just wants to hold on a bit longer, at least to give himself a graceful exit opportunity.

I feel that we are not far from the 'policy bottom' now, but the 'emotional bottom' and 'market bottom' are still halfway up the mountain and have not yet been reached. Next, we should continue to keep an eye on market trends, no rush, take it slow. #鲍威尔发言