Timothychow2017

$USDC 宏观数据上昨天比特币现货ETF净流入2.16亿美元，再次连续一周处于净流入状态；以太坊现货ETF净流入1109万美元，短期稍显疲软。总体上看地缘冲突导致的短期行情下探回升后，资本市场对川普可能得调停持肯定态度，黑天鹅的可能性再次下降。
晚间隔夜两点美联储将出六月份利率决议，目前市场给到的信号基本维持利率不变。重点在决议之后的鲍威尔针对经济的发言，由此得出的接下来的经济政策信号。按照以往的经验，鲍威尔无论说啥川普出来踩几脚那都是必须的，再不给明确的降息信号，川普真要扛不住了。
期待已久的(GENIUS法案)终于在老美参议院高票通过了，等川普签字后即正式生效。市场端对于该法案的反应短期并不大，利好基本提前已经释放。从长期来看，本质上遏制了加密货币对等空气的负面说法，场外资金的长期稳定注入加密市场也有了基本准则。

#我的交易风格 炒币想翻身？先把你那套韭菜思维扔进垃圾桶！
我刚入圈时跟你一样，天天盯着K线幻想暴富，结果被市场按在地上摩擦。直到遇见一位从3000块干到8位数的大佬，他酒后说了几句大实话，听完我直接跪了——原来90%的人亏钱不是因为技术差，而是脑回路有问题！当初都觉得5万美金是大饼顶？结果人家直奔6万。。2021年那些5万清仓的人，现在肠子都悔青了。
新手最爱一把梭哈，高手都在玩"俄罗斯套娃"。建仓分五批，每跌15%加一次码。之前SOL从260刀跌成8刀时，那些留了五发子弹的老油条，现在账户都多了个零。
很多人说"打死不追高"！看看那些百倍币，哪个不是突破新高后又涨3-5倍？交易所上币费动辄百万美金，庄家不拉盘难道钱多烧的？

贝森特X帖炸场：美元与加密的世纪和解​​
今天凌晨3点，美国财长贝森特在X平台甩出核弹级观点：“稳定币不是美元的敌人，而是21世纪美元霸权的钢筋水泥”这直接捅破了华盛顿多年来的窗户纸
此前白宫强硬派总把加密资产视为洪水猛兽，如今贝森特却承认​​全球流通的800亿枚合规稳定币（USDC/USDT）中93%锚定美元​​，本质上是在全球战场替美元收编“数字货币殖民地”
​​数据打脸：美元霸权暗渡陈仓​​
链上数据不会说谎：2025年Q1，美元稳定币链上结算量突破11.3万亿美元，同比暴涨214%，碾压Visa全年交易量
贝森特团队显然看透了本质——美国根本不需要亲自发CBDC，只要捏死合规稳定币的铸币权，就能让美元在Web3时代继续称王
这招比军事基地更狠，毕竟​​全球每天有270万加密地址自动为美元霸权打工​​，零成本扩张的金融帝国堪称史上最强阳谋
​​政策转向：从围剿到招安的底层逻辑​​
贝森特敢冒政治风险唱多，背后是《GENIUS法案》的暗线推进
该法案要求所有稳定币发行方必须持有等值美元资产+美国国债，且托管机构需获得联邦牌照。这等于给Tether、Circle们套上狗链，再拴到美债流动性池里——既解决31.4万亿美元国债的接盘侠难题，又让美联储凭空多出万亿级弹药库
对比2023年SEC的蛮干，这届政府终于学会“用合规驯化野兽”
​​监管套利：华尔街巨鲸的隐秘布局​​
敏锐的资本早已闻风而动：贝莱德、富达等传统机构通过币安等合规交易所，过去三个月累计加仓BTC现货ETF超47亿美元，同步增持稳定币发行商股权
贝森特此时喊话绝非偶然——6月12日他刚在国会承诺“延长关税缓冲期”，显然在为美元资本出海加密市场扫清障碍
这波政商合谋下，​​合规交易所的稳定币交易对将成为下一个万亿级流动性黑洞​​
​#GENIUS稳定币法案

Bitcoin $BTC continues to oscillate upwards. The local wars have no significant impact, but when the forces of bulls and bears are relatively balanced, such events can become tools for market manipulators. This uncertainty also greatly increases the difficulty of short-term trading.
Subjectively, I continue to see an upward oscillation; as long as it doesn't break the trend line, I still believe it will go above 110K. It reached 108,900 yesterday, which is just a small distance from the upper parallel top and even the previous high. It seems a bit unreasonable not to sweep it.
This week's five-star event, interest rate decision at 2 AM on Thursday, will undoubtedly lead to significant volatility that day.
#BTC

The Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision will be announced tomorrow. Recently, President Trump urged Fed Chair Powell to cut rates again and hinted that if inflation continues to ease while rates remain unchanged, he might have to 'take certain measures'.

💬 Do you expect a rate hike, a rate cut, or a hold? What is your trading strategy before the announcement?

👉 Complete daily tasks in the task center to earn points:
• Create a post using the tag with #美联储FOMC会议 or $BTC,
• Share your trader profile,
• Or share your trades to earn 5 points!
(Click '+' on the app homepage and go to the task center)
Event time: June 17, 2025, 14:00 to June 18, 2025, 14:00 (UTC+8)
Points are awarded on a first-come, first-served basis, don't forget to claim your points every day!

#特朗普比特币金库
### 1. Trump's Bitcoin Holdings Disclosure and 'Secret'
* **First Disclosure:** Trump first confirmed through federal disclosure documents in **August 2024** that he holds Bitcoin (BTC) worth between **$250,000 and $500,000**. This news shocked the crypto community, as he had previously expressed skepticism about Bitcoin.
* **Implication of a 'Secret Vault':** More intriguingly, in **March 2025**, Trump began to publicly state that he is a holder of Bitcoin and hinted that he possesses a 'secret vault'. He has claimed on multiple occasions that he is collecting all the 'remaining Bitcoins' and is the 'hidden force' behind Bitcoin.
* **Actual Situation:** Despite Trump's grand claims about his 'secret vault' and 'collecting all Bitcoins', market observers and on-chain analysts believe this is more likely a **hyperbolic political strategy** rather than a literal massive Bitcoin reserve.
* The Bitcoin holdings he publicly disclosed are negligible compared to the entire market.
* There is currently no verifiable on-chain data supporting his claim of having a large 'vault'.
* His statements are more often interpreted as a **marketing tactic** aimed at attracting cryptocurrency supporters' votes and capitalizing on Bitcoin's growing popularity.

In the past two days, a bunch of K-line teachers have been saying that the 4-hour line has reached the top and will fall below 100,000. Have they been watching the news? Isn't it just the short-term impact of the war between Israel and Iran? Don't talk about anything profound; anyway, the news can't be explained just by drawing two charts.
I'll finish telling their story for them. During the war and after the disaster, the disaster victims urgently need funds for circulation, so they will sell cryptocurrencies at low prices. Cryptocurrencies, led by Bitcoin, will be under selling pressure in the short term and may see a waterfall effect.
Looking at charts and news is all nonsense. Both bearish and bullish news are now available; it just depends on which side Trump buys. Anyway, the power of rise and fall has long been given to him, so what’s all this talk about decentralization?

#卡尔达诺稳定币提案
Djed vs. New Proposal: The Dual-Track Strategy for Cardano Stablecoins
Cardano has launched the over-collateralized stablecoin Djed (developed by COTI), but the new proposal explores the path of algorithmic stablecoins. Djed relies on ADA collateral and requires a 400% collateralization ratio to cope with volatility; whereas the algorithmic model may be similar to the mechanism of UST (but will improve design flaws). The dual-track approach can cater to users with different risk preferences, but caution is needed regarding the death spiral risk of algorithmic stablecoins, as the collapse of Terra in 2022 serves as a warning.

#Cardano Stablecoin Proposal Potential Impact on the Cardano DeFi Ecosystem
Currently, Cardano's TVL (Total Value Locked) accounts for only 2% of the entire chain's DeFi, primarily due to the lack of stablecoin infrastructure. If the proposal is approved, it will directly benefit the following scenarios:
Lending protocols (such as Aada Finance) could reduce interest rate volatility risks;
DEXs (such as Minswap) would reduce trading slippage;
Cross-chain bridges would facilitate the inflow of USDC/USDT. It is expected that within 6 months, TVL may grow by 300%, but the on-chain throughput bottleneck needs to be addressed.
$ADA

#卡尔达诺稳定币提案 The Cardano stablecoin proposal was put forward by Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson, aiming to enhance the liquidity of stablecoins within the Cardano ecosystem. The specific details are as follows:
• Fund Conversion: It is proposed to convert $100 million worth of ADA (Cardano's cryptocurrency) in the Cardano treasury into the Cardano-native supported stablecoin USDM. The Cardano treasury currently holds approximately 1.7 billion ADA.
• Collaborating Partner: After the conversion, it is proposed that Cardano could collaborate with the major hedge fund Brevan Howard to enhance key activities within the ecosystem, including Total Value Locked (TVL) and market making.

This week, what I've emphasized the most is to be cautious about chasing longs before stabilizing at 110,000. Indeed, the price has encountered a significant drop again, regardless of external factors or technical trends; what has happened is the reality.
In the past couple of days, I basically haven't given many longs in my posts (except for the short-term long at 10.4 in the morning, which was a normal stop loss); yesterday, I indicated to look for a pullback in shorts and provided a short opportunity above 10.9, but there was no entry opportunity.
Before the sharp decline, Auntie had already realized a few hundred points' worth of space with two precise low-point longs, and our target of 2850-2870 was successfully reached the day before yesterday. Yesterday mainly revolved around shorting above 2800.
I'm not going to play Monday morning quarterback; if I'm wrong, I'll admit it, but I won't take the blame for things that shouldn't be mine!

$BTC

I said to blow out the golden pit
Do you believe it?
Last year, these two fought, Bitcoin plummeted, then surged, you all know this
Today everyone should have seen that Israel and Iran are at it again
Last time was on October 1st last year
Look at the Bitcoin candlestick chart at that time
Everything has its own destiny

$BTC

#以色列伊朗冲突
Israel suddenly bombed Iran, causing Bitcoin to plummet along with global risk assets.
What's going on? The Israeli military took action, targeting military facilities within Iran (near Tehran and Isfahan).
Israel claims this is a "preemptive strike" because they perceive Iran's nuclear threat as increasingly imminent and dangerous.
Netanyahu stated that this type of attack may continue for several days.
What is Iran's reaction? The Iranian government has not officially responded, but their state media reported: there were explosions in the bombed areas, and planes in the sky have been grounded.
Bitcoin is suffering: As this news broke, everyone worried that the Middle East would descend into chaos, leading global investors to panic and start selling off high-risk assets (including stocks and cryptocurrencies).
Bitcoin was hit the hardest, dropping from a high of $108,500 within a day to around $103,500, a decline of over 4%.
What do market veterans think?
Ryan McMillin from Merkle Tree Capital: This situation looks familiar! Back in April when Iran and Israel were fighting, the crypto market also crashed that weekend. But as soon as the situation stabilized a bit, the market rebounded strongly. So, this panic sell-off is actually a good opportunity to pick up bargains!
Other market reactions:
Gold rose (+1.7%): In times of war, gold is a traditional safe haven, with prices soaring to $2,414 per ounce.
U.S. stock futures fell: Investors are worried about the conflict escalating and affecting the global economy.
Final note: This situation is still developing, and any new updates will follow.
Core summary: The Middle East is at war again (Israel bombs Iran) → Everyone is scared → Risk assets are being sold off → Bitcoin plummets over 4% → Analysts say don't panic, the short-term panic drop may rebound, long-term trends remain positive.
Gold has risen, U.S. stock futures have fallen. This situation is not over.
If you are still hesitating on what to do next, hit that follow button so you don't miss out; a more intense analysis will be delivered soon!

Daily Market Analysis in the Crypto World (6.12)
Summary:
Currently undergoing the second 4-hour pullback within the daily chart, targeting the 106900 range. The position of 106750 is particularly important in the coming days. If the price remains above the upper track of the 106750 central point, it indicates a strong pullback, and the daily upward trend is not over. If it breaks down, it will lead to a daily correction. If the price falls below this position, the range from 100300 to 110600 can be processed as a single upward segment on the daily chart. Similarly, as long as it stays above 106750, there is still a possibility of breaking new highs. However, it could also lead to a daily correction directly from 110650, with a rebound to 106900. A 4-hour rebound that does not break this high will form a second sell on the 4-hour chart. The upward pressure for the day is at 108700 and 110200, while the support below is at 106900. Those with a fear of heights can watch for a break below and then re-enter long positions. Please like, comment, and share!

$BTC

China and the U.S. clash in London for 48 hours, temporarily pressing the pause button on the trade war, but the fuse is burning down to August 10th! If talks break down, it will explode!
Temporary pain relief:
U.S. side: loosened the grip on rare earths.
Chinese side: allowed some rare earth exports from Shenzhen.
Tariffs plunge! U.S. punitive tariffs on China dropped from 145% to 30%, while China's tariffs on the U.S. dropped from 125% to 10%.
BUT! Under a bomb:
August 10th is the life and death line! If talks fail to reach an agreement? All lowered tariffs will “boom” back up, possibly even worse! It's purely a deferred explosion!
Surface ceasefire, secretly stabbing:
The U.S. hasn't stopped its underhanded tactics: chip and aircraft equipment bans remain in place! They are also boasting about the 34% “standard” tariff supported by the courts. A stalling tactic! The big stick could drop at any moment!
China is not backing down: exports to the U.S. plummeted by 34.5% in May, but the rare earth trump card is forcing the U.S. back to the negotiating table, that's tough!
Global panic:
The World Bank overnight slashed next year's global growth forecast to a dismal 2.3%!
ECB President Lagarde urgently warns: another blow will send the global economy into ICU!
Countries like the EU, Japan, and Mexico are pleading with the U.S. to stop! The market is truly panicking!
Experts' bold claims: “Syria-style ceasefire” - as fragile as paper! Deep-rooted contradictions remain unresolved, all depends on the leaders' moods, negotiations can break down at any time! This “peace” is too fake!
Market schizophrenia:
Rare earth stocks are skyrocketing, relevant enterprises in Shenzhen are profiting immensely.
The dollar strangely falls, the market is anxious.
U.S. companies shout “suspended sentence is good” while secretly stocking up to prevent an explosion in August!

$ETH 😂 Auntie has broken through the high point of 2788, eliminating the bearish trend on the daily chart. Despite the divergence, the price continues to rise. So why is Auntie acting crazy? 😮‍💨 She often doesn't play by the rules. Currently, there is resistance at the level of 2879, but the daily chart has not yet reached a high point. A 'Evening Star' has appeared on the 4-hour chart, and there is a distribution signal. Although bearish signals have emerged, we cannot rule out the possibility of reaching a new high again. 😬 Currently, all indicators are showing pressure, creating a divergence, but that doesn't mean the trend is turning negative. One should still maintain risk awareness, as the second 'biscuit' loves to act out. Pay attention to the resistance at 2845 above the daily chart and support at 2717/2670 below. If the daily chart breaks through the level of 2879 again, the upper resistance will be around 2899/2951. If the daily chart closes with a bearish candle and falls below the level of 2725, then this rebound for Auntie will come to an end, and we must prevent a subsequent pullback alongside the major asset.
#Ethereum

Core insights from the recent crypto roundtable discussion on #加密圆桌讨论 :
1️⃣ SEC's shift in attitude: New Chair Paul Atkins supports self-custody rights (referred to as "American foundational values"), criticizes his predecessor's "regulatory overreach," and has dropped several lawsuits (such as against Coinbase and Ripple).
2️⃣ Controversy over regulatory framework: The focus is on whether to continue using traditional securities laws (such as the Howey Test) or to create a new framework. A16z advocates for technology-neutral new regulations, while Democratic committee members warn against weakening investor protection.
3️⃣ Progress in technical regulation:
DART system: SEC and CFTC collaborate to develop a trading tracking system to monitor on-chain and off-chain transactions, raising privacy concerns.
New custodial regulations: Require crypto custodians to isolate customer assets, enforce insurance, and conduct third-party audits to mitigate bankruptcy risks.
4️⃣ NFT and DeFi in the spotlight: SEC hints at releasing regulatory guidelines for NFTs, while DeFi needs to balance compliance and innovation.
Also mentioned are institutions adopting acceleration (such as Bitcoin ETFs) and insufficient deployment of quantum-resistant encryption technology (with only 37% of systems meeting standards), among other points.

Is there anyone still awake? The big pancake has risen again, and I feel uneasy. Just now it retracted from the highest point, costing me over 3400 oil profits, almost scared me to death. Still, I need to close my position at the high point; this pullback really scared me, but fortunately, 2750 held steady. I hope it can slowly climb up, and then accelerate and pull back again.
After finishing this wave, I need to take a break. I stayed up until five o'clock again tonight, very sleepy and tired but scared to sleep!!!! This time, the goal is to stabilize at 110,000 and continue upwards; I hope I can bet correctly. This is also the reason why I took a large position this time. $ETH

#纳斯达克加密ETF扩容 Nasdaq applies to include XRP, SOL, ADA, and XLM in its cryptocurrency index to promote ETF diversification. The SEC approval deadline is November 2. If approved, the Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETF's investment scope will expand to 9 types of crypto assets, providing investors with broader exposure to the crypto market, reducing risk, and enhancing returns.

Is there still a bull market for altcoins this round?
To answer directly, yes, but it will certainly be different from the previous rounds.
So, why hasn't it come yet? Because the trend for Bitcoin is not over yet, and to be more precise, these institutions and listed companies haven't accumulated enough Bitcoin; they haven't finished purchasing. It's like when we go to a fruit store to buy apples; we definitely choose the ones that look good first and buy the ones that taste good. After the good ones are picked, we then choose the lesser quality ones. Capital in the crypto market also selects targets this way; institutions prioritize Bitcoin, and there is only one thing called BTC in this circle, but there are millions of altcoins. So, let's wait until Bitcoin rises before discussing altcoins. Let's look back at the launch times of previous altcoin seasons; from the bull markets of 2013 to 2021, the explosion of altcoins occurred 5-12 months after Bitcoin started its rally. This round of Bitcoin is expected to start in November 2024, so based on this pattern, we could still see a rise in the coming months. Of course, if you are hoping for a widespread surge in altcoins with sunshine and a favorable market, that certainly won't happen again. There are millions of altcoins, and over 90% of them are worthless air, even lacking a basic narrative. When the altcoin season truly arrives, only a handful will perform well; don’t naively think that the worthless tokens you hold will rise alongside them. Choosing is more important than holding. Without altcoins, the crypto market wouldn't be called a market; without altcoins, Bitcoin couldn't stand proudly at the top!