Advisor discusses hot topics:
Last night's non-farm data was actually okay; it didn't scare the market into chaos, and everyone sighed in relief. But who would have guessed that the country's countermeasures would hit like a heavy punch, directly confusing the U.S. stock market? Then Powell came out to speak, and market sentiment dropped from the heart to the soles of the feet.
We won't dwell on what Powell said; the core meaning is: the former president's chaotic imposition of tariffs has caused great disorder, with uncertainty at its peak, and inflation is likely to rise. The Federal Reserve originally aimed to keep inflation down to 2%, but now it seems even harder.
The U.S. economic growth is also slowing down; although it hasn't reached recession level, the downward trend is inevitable. Many analytical institutions have begun to predict the economy will cool down, and the Federal Reserve has also acknowledged this trend.
What’s more painful is that Powell has repeatedly emphasized: don’t expect us to cut rates additionally; we will only cut twice in 2025, and there’s no room for negotiation. This time Trump is anxious, publicly urging Powell to cut rates to save the market, but Powell stubbornly refuses to budge, stating that there will be no action until inflation shows signs of decline.
He has skillfully shifted the blame, implying that while there are risks to the economy, it's a burden that the former president must bear. The Federal Reserve is not responsible for cleaning up after it, nor do they care about the risk market.
In plain terms, it means three 'nots' and one 'not there': not responsible for the risk market, not bearing the burden of inflation, not denying economic downturn, and simply no additional rate cuts.
As a result, last night the Nasdaq plummeted 5.82%, which was quite terrible. Interestingly, MicroStrategy actually rose against the trend by 4%. This explains why Bitcoin didn't follow the U.S. stock market down but instead rebounded.
But as the saying goes, when the big building collapses, no one can hope to pick up the pieces. If one day the U.S. stock market really crashes, don't expect the crypto market to hide in a corner and laugh. These two markets are like an older brother and a younger brother; when the older brother catches a cold, the younger brother definitely sneezes and coughs.
At this time, some analysts will definitely come out and say that once the tariff policy is implemented, the bad news has been fully released, and the market will rise. The advisor can only say that this is too naive; the logic does not hold. The implementation of tariffs is not the end but a signal that the trade war has begun.
Countries subjected to tariffs will definitely retaliate, causing mutual harm; it's all a straightforward operation. This is a major negative for the global economy; where does the market find its confidence to rise?
Of course, some will ask why Bitcoin hasn't crashed yet even though the U.S. stock market is about to trigger a circuit breaker. It's simple; it's holding on. If there is still a rebound at this time, then it would be too false.
Now the advisor recalls 312, when the U.S. stock market first experienced a circuit breaker, Bitcoin was still pretending to be calm, but a few days later it flashed down, and after the drop, the Federal Reserve released liquidity. Now liquidity is tight again, financial products are suffering, and everyone is afraid Bitcoin will follow suit.
Advisor sees the trend:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 84700
Second resistance level: 84000
Support level reference:
First support level: 83300
Second support level: 82500
Today's suggestion:
Although Bitcoin has temporarily deviated from the upward trend, it has maintained the previous low point below the trendline, so a rebound perspective can be maintained in the short term. The current high point area of 84K overlaps with psychological resistance, so it can be set as short-term resistance.
If this area is broken again, the short-term high will continue to refresh, and the probability of further increases will rise. While maintaining a rebound trend, the area near yesterday's converging moving averages at 84.7~85K is strong resistance. To maintain an upward trend, this area must be broken.
Over the weekend, it is suggested to pay attention to the range of 83.3~84K and to enter ultra-short positions in the pullback zone. The maximum pullback area is 82.5K and the rising trendline; short positions can be attempted at the second support level.
Due to the possibility of continued sideways movement over the weekend, it is advisable to plan to enter the market within the range of 83~84K and to watch for rebound opportunities near the rising trendline in the event of a downturn.
4.5 Advisor's segment pre-embedding:
Long entry reference: not currently applicable
Short selling entry reference: 84700-85300 range, light position short; target: 83300-82500
