Why have US stocks fallen sharply for two consecutive days, nearing a level 1 circuit breaker (down 7%), while Bitcoin ($BTC ) has instead closed positively for two straight days? #美股暴跌

Although BTC has only increased by 0.8% these two days, at least it hasn’t reacted like before where a cough in US stocks would lead to a crash in Bitcoin. Could it be that Bitcoin has really become digital gold? Is everyone fleeing to safety?

I think it might be too early to celebrate. There’s a high probability that Bitcoin will correct within 1-3 days, around 9:30 PM next Monday when US stocks open, and it’s highly likely it will drop below $80,000, and even making new lows isn’t out of the question.

Looking at history, before the big drop on March 12, 2020, due to the pandemic, US stocks plummeted continuously from March 9-11, triggering the circuit breaker mechanism, while Bitcoin held on until March 12 when it suddenly dropped, crashing 30% in one hour, with $10 billion in liquidations, and that day it was halved! The current situation is eerily similar: the tariff war initiated by Trump has led to a continuous drop in US stocks, yet Bitcoin has withstood it for two days!

From the perspective of capital preference, this tariff war indeed directly impacts US stocks, and there might be some capital fleeing to BTC; however, compared to BTC, it is indeed a riskier asset. The total market cap of the crypto circle is only $2.68 trillion, while US stocks are nearing $50 trillion. From the market cap alone, it’s clear that large funds definitely prefer US stocks, as they pursue stable returns rather than the double profits that retail investors seek. No matter if US stocks rise or fall next Monday, funds will leave the crypto market for US stocks: if US stocks fall, they will withdraw funds to buy the dip (for example, 5000 points are considered an important support level for the S&P 500); if US stocks rise, they will even more likely FOMO into buying US stocks.

Finally, from a technical perspective and looking at the crypto ecosystem itself, after a significant drop, BTC has been weakly oscillating at the bottom for four consecutive weeks, unable to touch $89,000. This situation indicates a continuation of the downtrend, and ETH is in a worse condition with a monthly M-top; moreover, the crypto market operates 24/7 without a circuit breaker mechanism, and leverage is used more frequently and at higher rates than in all other markets. If it can’t hold on, a snowflake could trigger a crash!

So now is not the time to buy the dip, and definitely not to FOMO. Wait until BTC leads the market in a significant drop that releases the risks, or until the overall environment improves.

Predicting the next three significant drop levels for BTC: $79,000--$76,000--$68,000. Other coins may drop 2-5 times.