美股暴跌

The US stock market has plummeted, will it cause Bitcoin to crash? I predict that Bitcoin will experience another drop later tonight. What are your thoughts? Feel free to comment!
#美股暴跌

【Is there still hope this year?】
US stock market continues to plummet
The crypto world is not fundamentally negative
It’s just that there’s no way to avoid the continuous declines
It’s not that any particular aspect has been given up on, there’s still hope in certain areas
It’s just all the same
It's just that one is holding on to their own beliefs, and will only look at information that supports their own views

When the crypto market was at its most panic-stricken time, it was when U was about to explode and questions were raised
So many people simply ran away
Later, they never returned to the crypto world
Perhaps some saw the market rise again and came back

In the history of the US stock market, it has experienced about 5 major declines, with each drop exceeding 20%
Among them, three were during the pandemic, with three consecutive circuit breakers
And during those worst times in the crypto market, Bitcoin also dropped by 50%
Then, three months later, it reached a new high

The underlying principle is that when prices drop quickly, they also recover quickly to new highs
When prices drop slowly and for a long time, the recovery will also be slower
In short, there will always be a bottom, and things will eventually rise again
If the assets held have gone to zero
Then take advantage of the dips when Bitcoin and some quality stocks are also mistakenly hurt
To shore up the losses
(Having or not having money 💰 is a relative matter)
And some of those who still have the strength to survive are worth holding onto
In short, as long as we are still here, there will be a time for us to take our positions.

[The currency circle has plummeted, what are the future prospects? 】

September 3 is the first trading day for U.S. stocks in September. Before the market opened that day, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the Bank of Japan will continue to adopt interest rate hike policies as long as the economic outlook is in line with expectations. Affected by these remarks, U.S. stocks Changes occurred before the market opened that day, with all three major stock index futures falling slightly. After the opening, poor U.S. economic data further dampened market confidence. S&P Global data showed that U.S. manufacturing production fell for the first time in seven months in August, and concerns about economic growth have resurfaced. The manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 from 49.6 in July. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing PMI shrank for a fifth straight month, missing estimates of 47.5 but up from July's 46.8. Affected by the above-mentioned bad news, the three major U.S. stock indexes all jumped short and opened lower. There was no rebound throughout the day, and their decline accelerated at the end of the day. Among the main sectors, technology growth stocks became the hardest hit area on the day. Among them, several major technology giants whose market capitalization accounted for a large proportion of the United States all experienced significant declines that day. For example, the chip giant Nvidia fell nearly 10% that day, and its market capitalization dropped from 3 trillion. The U.S. dollar fell to 2.64 trillion U.S. dollars. After the market closed that day, it was reported that the U.S. Department of Justice had issued a subpoena to Nvidia, which may be involved in antitrust-related investigations. This news caused Nvidia's stock price to fail to stop falling after the market closed. Almost no other technology giants were spared. Apple fell 2.72% that day, Microsoft fell 1.85%, and Google fell 3.94%. Dragged down by these heavyweights, the U.S. market also fell across the board that day. The volatility index VIX, which measures market panic, soared 33% to 20.72 that day, but it is still far below the highest level of 65 hit by the VIX during a sharp market decline in early August. Investors' enthusiasm for AI faded. The market plunge on September 3 gave U.S. stock investors a sense of deja vu. Just one month ago, global stock markets, including U.S. stocks, suffered "Black Monday," which was also caused by the Bank of Japan. The announcement of an interest rate hike, coupled with negative news about U.S. economic data, caused changes in the global market. The Nikkei index once experienced panic selling, falling more than 10% in a single day, and U.S. stocks also suffered a significant correction.

#非农就业数据即将公布

#美股暴跌

Why have US stocks fallen sharply for two consecutive days, nearing a level 1 circuit breaker (down 7%), while Bitcoin ($BTC ) has instead closed positively for two straight days? #美股暴跌

Although BTC has only increased by 0.8% these two days, at least it hasn’t reacted like before where a cough in US stocks would lead to a crash in Bitcoin. Could it be that Bitcoin has really become digital gold? Is everyone fleeing to safety?

I think it might be too early to celebrate. There’s a high probability that Bitcoin will correct within 1-3 days, around 9:30 PM next Monday when US stocks open, and it’s highly likely it will drop below $80,000, and even making new lows isn’t out of the question.

Looking at history, before the big drop on March 12, 2020, due to the pandemic, US stocks plummeted continuously from March 9-11, triggering the circuit breaker mechanism, while Bitcoin held on until March 12 when it suddenly dropped, crashing 30% in one hour, with $10 billion in liquidations, and that day it was halved! The current situation is eerily similar: the tariff war initiated by Trump has led to a continuous drop in US stocks, yet Bitcoin has withstood it for two days!

From the perspective of capital preference, this tariff war indeed directly impacts US stocks, and there might be some capital fleeing to BTC; however, compared to BTC, it is indeed a riskier asset. The total market cap of the crypto circle is only $2.68 trillion, while US stocks are nearing $50 trillion. From the market cap alone, it’s clear that large funds definitely prefer US stocks, as they pursue stable returns rather than the double profits that retail investors seek. No matter if US stocks rise or fall next Monday, funds will leave the crypto market for US stocks: if US stocks fall, they will withdraw funds to buy the dip (for example, 5000 points are considered an important support level for the S&P 500); if US stocks rise, they will even more likely FOMO into buying US stocks.

Finally, from a technical perspective and looking at the crypto ecosystem itself, after a significant drop, BTC has been weakly oscillating at the bottom for four consecutive weeks, unable to touch $89,000. This situation indicates a continuation of the downtrend, and ETH is in a worse condition with a monthly M-top; moreover, the crypto market operates 24/7 without a circuit breaker mechanism, and leverage is used more frequently and at higher rates than in all other markets. If it can’t hold on, a snowflake could trigger a crash!

So now is not the time to buy the dip, and definitely not to FOMO. Wait until BTC leads the market in a significant drop that releases the risks, or until the overall environment improves.

Predicting the next three significant drop levels for BTC: $79,000--$76,000--$68,000. Other coins may drop 2-5 times.

As the S&P 500 plunged by $5 trillion due to the tariffs announced by Trump on April 2, Bitcoin has once again come into focus as a hedge during financial instability.

While traditional markets plummeted, Bitcoin only fell 3.7%, maintaining a level above $82,000. Analysts believe this indicates that Bitcoin's status as a global asset and 'digital gold' is strengthening, especially in the context of rising inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Based on projections of money supply growth, Bitcoin is expected to rise to $132,000 by the end of 2025.

#比特币 #数字黄金储备 #特朗普关税 #美股暴跌 #CoinPhoton