Bitcoin fell and then rose yesterday, overall still fluctuating within the range; technically, the 4-hour Bollinger Bands have started to widen, increasing volatility may require a directional choice. Additionally, the rebound lacks volume, which necessitates caution against false breakouts; the daily chart shows continued shrinking volatility, high-level stagnation, and shrinking trading volume, indicating weak market willingness to chase highs, with short-term reversal risks rising.

From on-chain data, long-term holders (LTH) are firmly accumulating coins, with LTH net increasing their holdings by 800,000 BTC each month, at a cost range of $95,000-107,000, forming a strong support zone; the HODL wave shows reduced selling pressure, with the exchange's BTC proportion dropping to a historical low of 13.7%, indicating that chips are tending to be locked; Bitcoin has realized supply distribution indicators, currently at a neutral level, with bulls and bears temporarily reaching a balance, but this indicator has come down from the overbought line, meaning the strength of the bulls has weakened.

Overall, the probability of a short-term pullback is high, possibly testing $93,000-98,000, but the mid-term bull market structure remains intact. If there is a deep pullback, such as breaking $93,000 or triggering panic selling, this could actually be more beneficial for the subsequent bull market process.