Summary:
Major negative news has exploded! The U.S. tariff policy has been implemented, and the global financial market has fallen into turmoil. Trump's announced 'reciprocal tariff' plan far exceeded market expectations, imposing high tariffs on major global economies, causing a sharp drop in U.S. stock futures, and the cryptocurrency market is also facing a double explosion. Bitcoin has fluctuated violently under the shadow of tariffs, and its future trend is uncertain. This article will deeply analyze the impact of tariffs on Bitcoin and explore subtle changes in the market and future trends.
One, the tariff storm sweeps the globe, and the financial market is turbulent.
On April 2, 2025, President Trump officially announced a 10% 'minimum benchmark tariff' on most imported goods globally and imposed higher retaliatory tariffs on dozens of countries and regions. This decision marks a significant shift in U.S. trade policy and signals the official start of a global trade war that may escalate comprehensively.
Once the news broke, the global financial market immediately fell into turmoil. U.S. stock futures plummeted, hedge funds frantically sold tech stocks, and short-sold across the board. The Asia-Pacific stock markets also fell sharply, with the stock markets of Japan and South Korea both opening down over 2%. The Bitcoin market was similarly not spared, experiencing a double explosion within 24 hours, with liquidation amounts reaching as high as $500 million.
Two, the fate of Bitcoin under the shadow of tariffs.
Bitcoin, the outlier of the digital age, quietly stands center stage in this tariff storm. Will it soar due to inflation and safe-haven demand, or will it fall amid the dollar game and market panic? The critical point for a surge or plummet is close at hand, yet the answer remains elusive.
Historically, Bitcoin has shown low correlation with traditional assets during trade wars. When Trump first wielded the tariff stick in 2018, Bitcoin's price surged, and trading volume skyrocketed. Now, in the face of a more complex global landscape and higher tariff barriers, how will Bitcoin's role be defined?
The shadow of inflation looms over the global economy, and Bitcoin, due to its fixed supply and decentralized nature, is often seen as 'digital gold' in the fight against inflation. However, the other side of inflation is the potential tightening policy from the Federal Reserve, which could compress market liquidity and suppress Bitcoin. Opportunities and risks coexist; can Bitcoin seize this fleeting moment of brilliance?
Three, as safe-haven sentiment rises, can Bitcoin become the new darling?
When the sky of the economy is filled with dark clouds, safe-haven assets are always pushed to the forefront. Gold and government bonds are traditional choices, while Bitcoin, the young challenger, carries a controversial halo. After the tariff announcement, Bitcoin's price fell and then rose, reflecting the complex emotions of the market.
Although Bitcoin's high volatility deters some people, there are also investors who see it as a safe haven during turbulent times. Historical data shows that Bitcoin has had both brilliant performances and disappointing moments during crises. Will it become the new king of safe havens in the face of global uncertainty caused by tariffs? Or will its high volatility cause it to fade at critical moments?
Four, the fate of Bitcoin in the dollar game.
The trade war has never been an isolated event; the fate of the dollar is closely related to it. If tariffs weaken global confidence in the dollar and lead to capital outflows, Bitcoin may welcome a spring. Conversely, if the dollar strengthens due to safe haven demand, Bitcoin may face downward pressure.
Expert opinions are increasingly divided. Some analysts predict that Bitcoin will decline due to the impact of tariffs, while others believe that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates due to an economic slowdown, Bitcoin may welcome a rebound opportunity. Market data also shows that after the tariff announcement, the dollar index rose slightly while Bitcoin oscillated at high levels.
Five, the hidden worries of mining farms: survival challenges under high costs.
The glory of Bitcoin is not a castle in the air; it relies on the support of mining machines and electricity. However, Trump's tariff policy has dealt a heavy blow to Chinese mining machine manufacturers, and the hardware costs for American miners may rise by 10% to 15% as a result. In the long term, if costs continue to rise, some small miners may exit, increasing the concentration of computing power and shaking the decentralized foundation of the Bitcoin network.
Six, when will there be a reversal opportunity in the market?
From a macro perspective, when Trump's policies stabilize and the market gradually adapts to and accepts their rhythm, a reversal opportunity may arise. Additionally, when the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates, it often brings upward momentum to risk markets.
From a technical analysis perspective, a rebound after a downward fluctuation may consume the market's buy and sell orders, forming a new equilibrium point. When players feel that the chips have cost-effectiveness, a consensus will gradually form, creating a bottom range. Moreover, a violent liquidation caused by a black swan event could also quickly form a bottom, providing investors with a buying opportunity.
Seven, history is always remarkably similar.
Looking back at history, the Bitcoin market has experienced several similar periods of turmoil. Events such as hacking, stablecoin de-pegging, and exchange crashes have caused market panic. However, after each crisis, Bitcoin has demonstrated strong resilience and recovery capability.
Today, faced with Trump's tariff storm, the Bitcoin market is once again under test. Although history does not repeat itself, it can be strikingly similar. Can we learn lessons from history to guide our future investment path?
Eight, conclusion: gazing at the shadows, waiting for dawn.
The shadow of tariffs continues to spread, and Bitcoin's future is as uncertain as a candle in the wind. Will it surge or plummet? No one can give a definitive answer. But it is this uncertainty that makes Bitcoin stand out in the digital world.
Standing at the point of April 3, 2025, we can only look ahead and wait for the market's judgment. No matter what the future holds, Bitcoin will continue to write its own chapter. And you, as a participant in the market, how will you write your own investment story?
Today's market analysis:
$BTC Bitcoin's rebound today to watch at the 83866 position; only if it stands firmly above this position can a 1-hour level rebound begin. The upper resistance levels to watch are around 85288-86850-88455. If it doesn't stand above 83866 today, it indicates that the rebound lacks strength, and it will continue to drop; look for support levels around 82338-81215-80000.
$ETH Ethereum's rebound today to watch at the 1833 position; only if it stands firmly above this position can a 1-hour level rebound begin. The upper resistance levels to watch are around 1870-1923-1955. If it doesn't stand above 1833 today, it indicates that the rebound lacks strength, and it will continue to drop; look for support levels around 1784-1752-1730.
$BNB After hitting the first resistance level at night and then dropping to the second support level, a rebound began. Today, pay attention to the 599.2 position for the rebound; only if it stands firmly above this position can a 1-hour level rebound begin. The upper resistance levels to watch are around 609.5-618-626.6. If it doesn't stand above 599.2 today, it indicates that the rebound lacks strength, and it will continue to drop; look for support levels around 586.5-576.5-569.3.
$SOL After hitting the second resistance level at night and then dropping near the second support level, a rebound began. Today, pay attention to the 120.8 position for the rebound; only if it stands firmly above this position can a 1-hour level rebound begin. The upper resistance levels to watch are around 124.5-130-135.6. If it doesn't stand above 120.8 today, it indicates that the rebound lacks strength, and it will continue to drop; look for support levels around 116.2-112.8-109.2.
Comment interaction:
Where do you think Bitcoin will head after the tariff storm? Will it continue to fall or welcome a rebound? Let me know in the comments! Let's discuss the subtle changes in the market and future trends together.
