This week, the Bitcoin price increase continued to expand, with a weekly increase of 10.51%, reaching a peak of $95,768. This increase is mainly due to Trump ending the tariff standoff and actively engaging in trade negotiations with various countries. On April 22, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs reached the largest single-day net inflow since Trump took office, and market sentiment generally shifted from fear to greed.
However, researchers from The Defi Report, combining on-chain momentum indicators, believe that in the short term, Bitcoin may soon face a correction, with a key support area above $70,000. If the support level holds firm, the bull market will continue; if it breaks below $70,000, the downward trend will persist. Of course, if the Bitcoin price remains stable at $95,000, it will set a new historical high.
In the long term, as the U.S. budget deficit grows and global inflation rises, non-sovereign hard currencies like gold and Bitcoin will become the preferred choice for investors. Next, we will analyze the Bitcoin market from multiple dimensions.
I. Key Indicators Interpretation
(I) Momentum Indicators and On-Chain KPIs
After Bitcoin fell to the 'death cross' on April 7, it has now broken through all key moving averages. The subsequent performance will determine whether the market trend will be a long-term bull market or continue a downward trend.
(II) ETF Inflows
In February and March, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $3.8 billion, and in the first three weeks of April, another $600 million flowed out. However, on April 22, the trend reversed, with a net inflow exceeding $1.54 billion, setting a new record. Whether this trend can continue is crucial; without participation from the U.S. market and ETF inflows, it is difficult for Bitcoin to return to its historical high.
(III) Spot Trading Volume
In April, the average daily trading volume of Bitcoin was $8.7 billion, comparable to the level at the beginning of the bull market in early 2023. During the rebound period on April 22, the trading volume reached $13 billion, but it was still less than half of the trading volume on high volatility days. Additionally, compared to November-December last year, the average number of active addresses in April decreased by 22%. However, Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market are reflexive, with price fluctuations occurring first, followed by changes in on-chain activity, which can be quite sudden.
(IV) Holder Dynamics
Short-Term Holders: Bitcoin has reached the cost benchmark for short-term holders ($92,500), which is a key support level. Since early February, the Bitcoin holdings of short-term holders have decreased by 11.4%. On April 22-23, the amount transferred to exchanges significantly increased, totaling $4.4 billion, indicating that 'paper hands' are selling, which may suggest that the bear market will persist until the end of this year.
Long-Term Holders: Long-term holders are returning to the market as buyers, currently controlling 69% of the Bitcoin supply, up from 66% on February 1, 2025. The increased concentration of long-term holders lays a solid foundation for the market, but the data is influenced by ETFs, as many retail investors purchase Bitcoin through ETFs.
Long-Term and Short-Term Holder Supply Ratio: Short-term holders are selling Bitcoin to long-term holders, with this ratio appearing to have bottomed out when it peaked between December last year and January this year. This typically marks the cycle's (local) top, but Bitcoin's previous cycle saw a 'double top', and this could happen again this year. If it does, the second peak may be in the range of $110,000 to $130,000.
(V) USDT Supply
Since mid-December last year, the supply of USDT has hovered around $140 billion, while the supply of USDC has increased by 47%. This is similar to the previous cycle, where the supply of USDC significantly increased during the bear market and then receded.
(VI) Funding Rate
On April 22, due to shorts betting that Bitcoin would fall near $94,000, the funding rate for Bitcoin dropped to negative levels. The amount paid by shorts to maintain positions reached the highest level since August 2023, indicating the stance of traders and speculators, but a short squeeze may also occur, causing Bitcoin's price to rise above $100,000 in the short term.
(VII) MVRV-Z Score Analysis
The MVRV-Z score of Bitcoin is currently 2.2, indicating that the current trading price of BTC is 2.2 standard deviations higher than its average. Historical data shows that the average monthly return rate is 10.34% (53% of cases yield positive returns); the average three-month return rate is 34.25% (55% of cases yield positive returns); the average six-month return rate is 59.83% (53% of cases yield positive returns); the average twelve-month return rate is 191% (after excluding the case from January 7, 2017, it is 84%, with only 33% of cases yielding positive returns). Generally, buying when the MVRV-Z score exceeds 2 can yield substantial returns, but this typically occurs at the beginning of the cycle.
II. Market Trend Summary
In the past three months, on-chain activity has shown a downward trend, affecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana alike. The Asia-Pacific region/China dominated most of this week's volatility; although there was a significant inflow of ETFs on April 22, without strong participation from the U.S. market, it is difficult for Bitcoin to restore its bull market structure. The growth of stablecoins has started to weaken, and the ratio of long-term holders to short-term holders is a key focus. Currently, it is hard to see strong short-term holders entering the market to push prices to new highs. MVRV-Z score analysis shows mixed short-term returns, but the outlook for the next two to three years is more positive, suggesting buying when the Bitcoin score approaches 1.
III. Short-Term Market Outlook
Currently, the leverage ratio of long and short liquidity is basically equal, having reached the late stage of liquidity accumulation. At most 1-2 days, the clearing intensity of one side's fuel can lead the market to a new direction. A large amount of macro data during the period from 8:30 PM to 10:30 PM on the 30th of this month may be the trigger. It is recommended to control positions, as the market is suitable for quick entry and exit, with opportunities on both long and short sides.
BTC: Support levels at 91,700/89,500/88,547, resistance levels tentatively at 96,000/97,000, key level at around 94,000. Pay attention to whether it touches 94,000 and if there are any signals of a volume drop.
$ETH ETH: Support levels at 1,675/1,585/1,500, resistance levels tentatively at 1,828, key level at 1,753. Pay attention to gains and losses.
SOL: Support levels at 140/133, resistance levels at 167, key level around 140.
DOGE: Support levels at 0.165/0.1515, resistance levels tentatively at 0.2, key level at 0.18.
IV. Trading Legends and Human Nature Reflections
(I) The Legendary Trading Journey of Tom Baldwin
Tom Baldwin started with $25,000 and grew his trading account to over $30 million in six years. He initially sought patterns in the market through observation, focusing on scalp trading, later developing into a combination of scalp and speculative trading. His successful experience includes reducing risks, patiently waiting, not focusing on money, strategically exiting, planning well, and letting go of self.
(II) Crossing Human Nature to Trade
In financial market trading, human weaknesses such as comparison and greed can affect decision-making. To avoid the comparison mindset, one should not communicate market logic and trading systems with others, clarifying one's logic for building positions; to avoid greed, one must understand not to try to earn the last penny, establishing one's trading system and only earning within one's cognitive limits.
V. Meme Coin Sector Highlights: Outstanding Performance of PENGU Token
As the BTC price warms up, the Meme coin sector has become active again, with the PENGU token showing outstanding performance. From a bottom price of $0.0037 on April 9, it rebounded to $0.0134, with an increase of up to 360%. As of the time of writing, PENGU is quoted at $0.0124, with a 24-hour increase of 31.43%; the floor price of Pudgy Penguins NFT has risen to 11.5 ETH, a 20% increase month-on-month; the trading volume in the past seven days reached 2,097 ETH, a month-on-month increase of 242%.
Reason for the Rebound: Pudgy Penguins CEO Luca Netz is actively promoting it, including preparing related events, leveraging 'World Penguin Day' to gain support from various platforms and institutions, and launching UGC creator economy incentives, where users can earn $2 for every 1,000 views of related content.
Future Outlook: The Pudgy Penguins team understands Web2 growth logic well and may enjoy U.S. policy benefits and institutional support in future developments, making their future worth looking forward to.
