Advisor discusses hot trends:
The tariff issue has finally been settled, and it can be said to be the most hardcore version that the market had anticipated. Previously discussed, if this toughest version really comes, the market will definitely calculate the worst-case scenarios based on these policy numbers, which would also have a significant impact on the market.
Now everyone can see that U.S. stock futures have plummeted. Bitcoin also dropped sharply after peaking, indicating that the market is pricing in the worst-case scenario.
However, the advisor feels that this pricing may not be fully in place yet and suggests waiting a bit longer to see when the market can clear up. After it clears, there might be some good news coming through, allowing the market to catch its breath.
Additionally, many people are shouting that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates in June or July, a big market rally will follow. Personally, the advisor still believes it’s not that simple; let’s not forget about the significant risk of Japan's interest rate hikes.
The Bank of Japan plans to raise interest rates in July and September-October 2025, with rates gradually increasing from the current level to 0.75%, and possibly reaching 1.00% by early 2026.
Remember the rate hikes on July 31 last year and January 24 this year? After each, the bulls were basically buried within about a week, so this risk cannot be ignored.
For example, around early May when the Federal Reserve held a meeting, the market in the first half of the year probably wasn't as bullish as those KOLs claimed. Shorting at highs might be more reassuring since it's difficult to go up, but downtrends can happen quickly.
Especially from June to July, even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates, Japan's interest rate hikes might cause disruptions at that time, so be cautious about going long. Last night, a bunch of KOLs were calling for Bitcoin to reach 91K and 95K, and even more absurdly, some were calling for 100K.
Speaking of such a rapid surge, how could it possibly be a real bull market? A genuine rise should be steady and gradual, with daily closes slightly higher than the previous day, which is reasonable. Last night, those who liked to hold their positions must be regretting it now after chasing long without selling quickly, as they are now down several thousand points.
Continuing from yesterday's article about altcoins, after each round of hot trends, it often ends up in a mess. After getting cut multiple times and returning to zero, there are still many people rushing in, especially small investors who always think they can get rich quickly by playing with altcoins.
This is actually a cognitive trap; wealth takes time to accumulate. Sometimes being a little slower and steadier can lead to faster results in the end. If you keep thinking about making it big in one step, you will mostly end up empty-handed.
Advisor looks at the trend:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 85600
Second resistance level: 84400
Support level reference:
First support level: 82400
Second support level: 81200
Today's suggestion:
Since the converging area of the moving averages that broke through yesterday has now turned into strong resistance, it may take longer to rise again. The first resistance at 84.4K is notable because the 60-day, 120-day, and 200-day moving averages all overlap here, so the probability of a pullback is high.
If the price breaks through and stabilizes in this area during the day, pay attention to the confirmation of a pullback on the moving average breakthrough. Rather than expecting a breakout, it’s better to observe whether the price gradually raises the lows through sideways consolidation, slowly digesting the selling pressure before rising.
The first support at 82.4K is today's formed low point and is also an important short-term support level. Given that it formed a low near the ascending trend line, it can be determined in the short term that the ascending trend line will hold. Additionally, watch if the price can raise the lows along the trend line and rebound again.
Although Bitcoin has seen a significant drop with a large bearish candle, it has stopped falling near the ascending trend line. Therefore, based on the ascending trend line and previous low points, consider trading opportunities for short-term rebounds when the price dips.
When the market rebounds, don’t be overly optimistic thinking this is the bottom. The current market is still unstable, so it's essential to be wary of selling pressure from profit-taking.
4.3 Advisor's wave band pre-set:
Long entry reference: Not currently applicable
Short entry reference: Light short in the 84500-85600 range. Target: 82400-81200