The U.S. stock market experienced significant gains last Friday, with all three major indices rising. The S&P 500 index performed particularly well, closing higher for the ninth consecutive trading day, setting the longest winning streak in nearly 20 years. Behind this surge are two key driving forces: first, a better-than-expected non-farm payroll report alleviated market concerns about a possible economic slowdown; second, there are signs of easing in U.S.-China trade relations, boosting market optimism.
According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs in April, significantly exceeding the market's expectation of 138,000. Although this figure is slightly lower than the revised 185,000 in March, it remains strong. This report effectively alleviated market concerns about a rapid deterioration in the U.S. economy, thereby boosting investor risk appetite.
In addition to positive economic data, the easing of U.S.-China trade relations has injected optimism into the market. The Ministry of Commerce stated on Thursday that it is assessing the possibility of restarting trade negotiations with the U.S., but also emphasized that the U.S. needs to show sincerity, especially in being prepared to cancel unilateral increased tariffs and other key issues.
However, based on historical experience, the next few months are often the off-season for financial markets. Many investors follow the old Wall Street saying, "Sell in May and Walk Away." However, this year's market atmosphere may break past patterns. Bitcoin has performed relatively weakly over the past few months, but this year it may go against the trend, with a chance to challenge the $98,000 mark, and recent growth stocks are also showing signs of recovery. Despite the recently released GDP data being slightly weak, increasing the risk of economic recession, if the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates, it may bring a new wave of rebound momentum to the market.
In the cryptocurrency sector, after an unsuccessful attempt to breach the $98,000 mark on the 2nd, the Bitcoin price fell sharply, reaching a low of $93,445. As of the time of this writing, the price is quoted at $94,334, with a decline of approximately 1.83% in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin four-hour chart
The Bitcoin price has fallen below the middle band and is approaching the lower band. The widening of the Bollinger Bands indicates increased volatility. If the lower band support cannot be maintained, a further decline may accelerate. The three KDJ indicators show overselling, but the rebound of the J line suggests a short-term stabilization opportunity. In the MACD indicator, the DIF line is far below the DEA line, and the green histogram continues to expand, indicating a clear bearish trend, with no signs of a bottom divergence or golden cross reversal yet. The current price hovers around 94335 (23.6% retracement level), which is a key short-term point. If this support is lost, it may drop to 93238 (0.0% retracement level); if it can hold, the upper resistance levels are 95011 (38.2%) and 95564 (50.0%). In the short term, it is crucial to pay attention to the gains and losses at 94335; if it breaks down, the market may weaken further.
Rather than giving you a hundred percent accurate suggestion, it is better to provide you with the right mindset and trend. After all, teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish. Suggestions may earn you for a while, but learning the mindset will allow you to earn for a lifetime! The focus is on the mindset, grasping the trend, and planning the market layout and positions. What I can do is use my practical experience to help everyone and ensure that your investment decisions and business management are headed in the right direction.
Drafting time: (2025-05-05, 13:00)
(Written by Da Xian on Currency) This is a statement: Online publications have delays, and the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is dedicated to research and analysis in the investment fields of Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, foreign exchange, stocks, etc., has been involved in the financial market for many years, and possesses rich practical operation experience. Investment carries risks, and one should be cautious when entering the market. For more real-time market analysis, please follow the public account Da Xian on Currency for discussions and exchanges.#加密市场回调
