Advisor discusses hot topics:
How to describe the recent market sentiment? It really resembles the dead atmosphere of September 2023. Later, the news about ETFs shattered the deadlock, and confidence surged, ultimately reviving the Bitcoin bull market.
In the current situation, if we want to restart the market, we still need some substantial news at the same level. For example, major measures like interest rate cuts or quantitative easing are needed to create a real bull market in the Bitcoin circle, rather than just Bitcoin having fun alone.
So the advisor sees that there are still many people saying the bull market hasn’t arrived, and indeed, from a macro cycle perspective, this statement has some validity. Simply put, institutional investors are frantically buying Bitcoin, while retail investors are preoccupied with altcoins. Retail investors don't care how much Bitcoin has risen; why?
Because they don't have any Bitcoin in hand, they are eagerly waiting for the arrival of the altcoin season, after all, they are holding a bunch of altcoins waiting to break even. So what does that mean?
It is clear that institutions and major players are using worthless altcoins to cut the retail investors' real money, with the ultimate goal of exchanging it for Bitcoin. What is valuable, North Korean hackers have demonstrated to us long ago. The advisor mentioned in an article long ago that market liquidity is extremely poor; anyone who still believes that the altcoin season can make a comeback is simply a big fool.
The performance over the past two days has been decent. But the issue of tariffs is still testing the patience of retail investors, and the three major U.S. stock indices collectively retracted before the close. What does this indicate? The market is still very troubled by the uncertainty surrounding tariffs.
After all, there is still no clear information on how the tariffs will turn out. At 5 AM Beijing time on April 3, Trump will officially announce the tariff results; let’s see what happens then.
Back to Bitcoin, looking at the daily chart, it seems there is a V-shaped reversal, touching the upper Bollinger Band, at first glance, it looks like a trend. But don’t rush to go long; the higher it goes, the greater the pressure. Human nature is like this; after a small rebound, they feel it can still rise, rise, rise, and their minds are filled with the illusion of a bull market.
But this is not a one-sided rise; how could it keep pushing up? In a volatile market, rebounds never last more than 72 hours; that's a hard rule. Tomorrow is Thursday, and according to what the advisor said before, if there is a rebound on Monday and Tuesday, we basically have to look bearish on Thursday and Friday. This won't always be accurate, but most of the time, it's reliable.
Advisor views the trend:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 86500
Second resistance level: 85300
Support level reference:
First support level: 84300
Second support level: 83500
Today's suggestion:
Bitcoin has been undergoing a backtest since breaking 85K, currently consolidating in a range between the 200-day and 120-day moving averages. Due to a large bearish line forming on the 4-hour level, if it subsequently enters a consolidation phase, it can be seen as a high-level consolidation, thus maintaining the short-term rebound view.
If the first resistance level is broken again, it may form an N-shaped rise. Prices are expected to rise to around 87K. If the current K-line closes above the 200-day moving average, the upward trend will further increase.
Since the price is hovering near the 200-day moving average, if it can hold the historical high area of 84~84.3K, further rises can be expected. Additionally, attention should also be paid to the breakthrough of resistance lines.
The first support level of 84.3K coincides with the 120-day moving average, making it an important support level for today. There may be a situation where the K-line has a lower shadow line (i.e., price drops and then rebounds), so the area of 84~84.3K can be set as an important support area.
If the price falls to the second support level of 83.5K, and the K-line body is a bearish line (closing price lower than opening price), then the view turns bearish; if it stops falling and shows a lower shadow line, then the rebound view can be maintained.
Since a large bullish line has formed, as long as it doesn't fall below 50% of the large bullish line during the adjustment, the rebound view can continue to be maintained.
4.2 Advisor’s wave strategy:
Long entry reference: light position in the range of 82500-83500, target: 84300-85300
Short entry reference: light position in the range of 85600-86500, target: 84300-83500