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Review of this week
From March 24 to March 31 this week, Ice Sugar Orange reached a maximum of about $88765 and a minimum close to $81278, with a fluctuation range of about 8.43%.
Observe the chip distribution map, there is a large amount of chip transactions around 78557, which will have certain support or pressure.
Analysis:
60000-68000 about 1.58 million coins;
90000-100000 about 2.07 million coins;
In the short term, the probability of not breaking below 75000~79000 is 60%;
Among them, the probability of not breaking above 92000~87000 in the short term is 60%.
Important news aspect
In terms of economic news
US bank analysts expect an average gold price of about $3063 this year, rising to $3350 in 2026, potentially reaching $3500 within two years, supported by concerns about the US economic outlook and expectations that the Fed will cut rates more aggressively.
Goldman Sachs predicts that both the Fed and the European Central Bank will cut rates three times this year. Reasons include the pressure on US economic growth from Trump's tariffs.
Expected rate cut timeline by the Fed: July, September, November.
Expected rate cut timeline by the European Central Bank: April, June, July.
Market expectations: Currently, the market believes there is a 23.3% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates unchanged until June, a 64.7% probability of a cumulative cut of 25 basis points, and a 12% probability of a cumulative cut of 50 basis points.
Tariff impact: Trump's tariff plan has increased the risk of a US economic downturn and raised the possibility of a 'preventive' rate cut similar to 2019.
Tariff concerns: Trump plans to implement tariffs this week, causing market tension. Analysts believe the ambiguity of the US tariff statement has severely damaged risk appetite; if tariffs are implemented, risk assets and the dollar may have a brief rebound, but if further increases follow, the rebound will be fleeting unless policies are clarified.
Economic forecasts: Goldman Sachs has lowered its Q4 2025 GDP forecast for the US by 0.5% to 1%, and raised its unemployment rate forecast by 0.3% to 4.5%. Furthermore, the probability of the US economy falling into recession in the next 12 months has been significantly raised from 20% to 35%.
Crypto ecosystem news aspect
Market correlation: Analysts point out that BTC and ETH face dual tests of macro and technical challenges, with increasing linkages to the traditional market; BTC is correlated with the Nasdaq index at 0.67, and a weakening US stock market may drag down the crypto market.
California, USA: Officially submitted the AB-1052 (BTC rights) bill, aimed at providing legal protection for digital asset users, clarifying self-custody rights for BTC, and prohibiting public agencies from taxing or restricting assets used for payment. If passed, it may become a template for other regions.
US FDIC: Released new guidelines clarifying the process for US banks to engage in cryptocurrency activities. David Sacks believes this makes it easier for banks to participate and is a way to promote the mainstreaming of crypto.
The FDIC previously stated that its regulatory agencies could participate in 'permitted' crypto activities without prior approval.
Wang Chun, co-founder of F2Pool (Fish Pool), will embark on a mission aboard a SpaceX crewed spacecraft on April 1 and serve as the commander.
Mining company Marathon Digital: Announced a $2 billion stock sale plan, mainly for the purchase of additional BTC and general corporate purposes.
Bloomberg reports that FTX will start repaying its main creditors with $11.4 billion in cash reserves collected by the end of May, with the first payment to the main creditor group expected on May 30.
MicroStrategy: Acquired an additional 22,048 BTC between March 24 and March 30, with an average purchase price of $86,969, totaling $1.92 billion. Currently holds a total of 528,185 BTC, with a total cost of approximately $35.63 billion, averaging about $67,458 per BTC.
Last week, US BTC spot ETF saw a cumulative inflow of $196.4 million, while ETH spot ETF saw a cumulative outflow of $8.7 million.
Tether: Issued an additional $1 billion stablecoin on March 31.
BMAN, co-founder of ABCDE: Believes that the crypto market is in a bear market 95% of the time, requiring resilience, patience, and strategic determination.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural changes/neutral state.
Medium-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.
Short-term observation: used to analyze the current stage of the short-term market; as well as the possibility of certain events occurring under some premises in a certain direction.
Long-term insights
US spot ETF
Exchange net inflow/outflow segmented by scale
Total on-chain chip distribution structure
BTC price, long-term/short-term holder supply
（Below figure US spot ETF）
A more balanced state has been reached between the demand for US spot ETFs (which is one of the key drivers of the recent bull market) and selling pressure/profit-taking.
This is consistent with the macro uncertainty in the previous news, which may be making institutional investors more cautious.
（Below figure exchange net inflow/outflow segmented by scale）
Inflow of funds into exchanges has increased, especially for large funds, indicating that major players or 'whales' may have a higher tendency to sell.
This may be profit-taking behavior after a significant price increase, or a risk-averse operation in response to macro headwinds or perceived market signals.
（Below figure total on-chain chip distribution structure）
There is a considerable amount of supply (resistance) above, and for prices to rise significantly, it needs to absorb this selling pressure.
Buyers need very strong conviction and transaction volume to break through these selling order walls.
The current order book structure indicates that without strong catalysts, the market may be more likely to fall into a range of oscillation, or find it difficult to maintain a strong upward momentum.
（Below figure BTC price, long-term/short-term holder supply）
The behavior of long-term holders indicates that the market may be transitioning from a strong accumulation/rise phase to a distribution or consolidation phase.
The combination of long-term supply possibly peaking, high short-term supply, and weakening upward momentum is a classic pattern observed at previous market cycle tops or major consolidation periods.
Comprehensive analysis:
Converging cautious signals:
On-chain data strongly corroborates the cautious tone derived from news analysis. ETF fund inflows are incoherent, exchange inflows are increasing (especially for large players), significant resistance in the upper order book, and signs that long-term holders may begin to distribute, all point towards Bitcoin price consolidating in the short term.
As long as macro uncertainty continues to exist, given the increasing correlation between crypto assets and traditional markets, there may continue to be pressure on crypto assets.
Data indicates that achieving sustained strong increases immediately may be relatively difficult.
The key is the fund flow of the ETF.
To challenge the resistance above and potentially restore the upward trend, strong and sustained net inflows need to be seen.
Continuous net outflows or weak inflows will strengthen the expectation of consolidation.
Long-term perspective:
Although short-term signals are cautious, the fundamental factors mentioned in previous news (such as the AB-1052 bill and FDIC guidelines representing regulatory progress, ongoing project development, and potential long-term institutional adoption) still have positive significance for longer-term development.
Of course, the current long-term positives are difficult to completely offset the significant macro pressure or the current on-chain consolidation signals in the short term.
Conclusion:
Combining news and detailed chart data analysis, the short-term outlook for the crypto market appears relatively cautious.
The market may be transitioning from its strongest upward phase.
Currently, the crypto market is struggling to cope with significant macro uncertainty and the consolidation signs shown internally.
The market may continue to fluctuate, and price movements will be highly sensitive to macro news, ETF fund flows, and other data.
Medium-term exploration
Network sentiment positivity
Derivative liquidation structure
Long-term participant supply ratio
Whale composite scoring model
Liquidity supply
（Below figure network sentiment positivity）
After a slight recovery, network sentiment is once again facing the issue of slowing growth.
Currently, the state in the market seems to be cautious and wait-and-see, with overall movements not showing uniformity and relatively converging.
（Below figure derivative liquidation structure）
The current magnitude of short liquidation is weakening, from recent performance, long and short liquidations are alternating, in a specific game state.
Currently, if short liquidations gradually ease, it may turn to liquidating long positions.
（Below figure long-term participant supply ratio）
The overall tone in the market is facing a shift, and the supply of long-term participants is gradually increasing.
The possible rhythm may return to the stage of holding and accumulation. At the same time, during the sliding process in this state, one must be alert to the crisis implied by insufficient liquidity, i.e., secondary pricing is difficult to maintain.
（Below figure whale composite scoring model）
In the currently cautious overall state, the whale group still maintains a high willingness to hold, and the purchase score has not decreased, which may mean that maintaining pricing will rely more on the whale group.
（Below figure liquidity supply）
Liquidity supply has decreased significantly, and recent performance has been very sluggish. Based on historical time references, the market needs 1-2 months to recover.
Short-term observation
Derivative risk coefficient
Options intent transaction ratio
Derivative transaction volume
Options implied volatility
Profit and loss transfer amount
New addresses and active addresses
Ice Sugar Orange exchange net position
Auntie exchange net position
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net position
Off-chain exchange data
Derivative rating: The risk coefficient is in the neutral area, and derivative risks are moderate.
（Below figure derivative risk coefficient）
After the price has slightly declined again and the risk coefficient touched the green area, the risk coefficient is currently at a neutral area. This week's market is expected to be heavily influenced by news, and from the indicators alone, there are no special expectations.
（Below figure options intent transaction ratio）
The proportion and volume of put options are both rapidly increasing, and the current proportion of put options is at a high level.
（Below figure derivative transaction volume）
Derivative trading volume is at a low level.
（Below figure options implied volatility）
Options implied volatility has rapid fluctuations in the short term.
Sentiment status rating: Neutral
（Below figure profit and loss transfer amount）
The following only pertains to BTC. Both positive and fearful sentiments in the market are at low levels, and with the continuous lack of purchasing power, the expectation leans more toward consolidation.
（Below figure new addresses and active addresses）
New active addresses are at a relatively low level.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating:
（Below figure Ice Sugar Orange exchange net position）
BTC is overall in a large outflow accumulation state, with a small amount of chips flowing in possibly to avoid risks from this week's news.
（Below figure Ethex exchange net position）
ETH is overall in a state of large outflow accumulation.
（Below figure high-weight selling pressure）
Currently, there is no high-weight selling pressure involved.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, stablecoin purchasing power has slightly increased.
（Below figure global purchasing power status）
Current purchasing power is in a state of loss.
（Below figure USDT exchange net position）
Stablecoin purchasing power has slightly increased.
Off-chain transaction data rating: there is a willingness to purchase at 80000; there is a willingness to sell at 90000.
（Below figure Coinbase off-chain data）
There is a willingness to purchase at price levels around 70000~80000;
There is a willingness to sell at price levels around 90000,95000.
（Below figure Binance off-chain data）
There is a willingness to purchase at price levels around 70000~80000;
There is a willingness to sell at price levels around 90000,95000.
（Below figure Bitfinex off-chain data）
There is a willingness to purchase at price levels around 75000;
There is a willingness to sell at price levels around 90000,95000.
Summary for this week:
Summary of news:
Short-term (next few weeks to months):
Both capital markets and crypto assets will face high volatility, mainly influenced by macroeconomic data, central bank policy expectations (especially regarding interest rate cuts), and geopolitical/trade risks (particularly Trump's tariffs).
Due to increased correlation, crypto assets are likely to follow the same direction as traditional risk markets.
Medium to long term:
For the capital market, the key is whether the economy can achieve a 'soft landing' and whether trade frictions are controllable.
For crypto assets, besides the macro environment, the progress of regulation and the depth of institutional adoption will be key factors determining whether they can break out of independent markets and achieve long-term value growth.
Clarification of regulation and continuous institutional entry are important positive signals.
Focus for this week:
On Friday, the US non-farm payroll report for March will be released (previous value 151,000, expected 140,000) and the unemployment rate (previous value 4.1%, expected 4.1%).
On Friday, Powell will give a speech, and the market is paying attention to his views on the US economy, inflation, tariffs, and interest rate cut clues.
The landing of tariff panic in the US and the release of important economic data may cause significant fluctuations in US stocks and currency markets.
On-chain long-term insights:
Recent inflows into the US spot ETF have weakened and outflows have increased, showing that key institutional buying momentum is slowing down.
Recent large funds (whales) have increased net inflows to exchanges, indicating potential selling pressure or rising risk aversion.
There is a dense selling order wall above the current price, while strong support below is far away, indicating that the price faces significant resistance to rise.
The supply of long-term holders tends to flatten or decline, while the supply of short-term holders is relatively high and price momentum is weakening, showing characteristics of the later stage of the market cycle.
Market tone:
The market leans more towards consolidation in the short term; data indicates it may currently be in a relatively mature bull market phase, requiring necessary adjustments and chip turnover.
Therefore, the long-term outlook remains optimistic (based on adoption and technological fundamentals).
In the middle or accompanied by a deeper correction and a longer consolidation period.
On-chain medium-term exploration:
Network sentiment growth is slowing;
Short liquidations are gradually easing;
The supply ratio of long-term participants is rising;
Whale scoring remains high;
Liquidity supply has entered a relatively low malaise area.
Market tone:
Consolidation
Key groups are resuming accumulation, and the market is currently leaning towards a consolidation tone.
From the perspective of risk assessment, one needs to be cautious of insufficient liquidity.
On-chain short-term observation:
The risk coefficient is in the neutral area, and derivative risks are moderate.
New active addresses are relatively low.
Market sentiment state rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of exchanges shows that BTC and ETH are in a large outflow accumulation state.
Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, stablecoin purchasing power has slightly increased.
Off-chain transaction data shows a willingness to purchase at 80000; there is a willingness to sell at 90000.
In the short term, the probability of not breaking below 75000~79000 is 60%; among them, the probability of not breaking above 92000~87000 in the short term is 60%.
Market tone:
The overall market state is basically consistent with last week, but this week's news impact weight is relatively large, with the market waiting for the fermentation of news. In terms of data, it is currently neutral, and the market is in a boring low turnover phase. Both profit and loss chips choose to hold at the current price, while a small amount of purchasing power chooses to accumulate chips at the current price, reaching a short-term balance point.
Risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional opinions on investment; please view with caution and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" research institute.
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