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Weekly Review
From April 21 to April 28 this week, the Ice Sugar Orange peaked near $95,758 and dipped close to $85,144, with a volatility range of about 12.46%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 92,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
Analysis:
60000-68000 approximately 1.53 million coins;
76000-89000 approximately 1.72 million coins;
90000-100000 approximately 2.19 million coins;
In the short term, the probability of not breaking below 75000~80000 is 80%;
Among them, the probability of not breaking above 95000~100000 in the short term is 50%.
In terms of important news
Economic news aspect
Key data forecast for this week:
Q1 GDP will be released on Wednesday (previous value 2.4%, expected to drop sharply to 0.4%)
Non-farm payrolls (previous value 228,000, expected to drop to 135,000) and unemployment rate (previous value 4.2%, expected 4.2%) will be released on Friday.
Core PCE (previous value 2.6%, expected 3.2%) will also be released on Wednesday, and JOLTs job vacancies will be released on Tuesday.
Overall expectations are pessimistic: The expectations for U.S. economic and employment data are generally poor this week, with GDP and non-farm expectations dropping sharply.
Concerns about recession: Barclays questions whether the U.S. can avoid an economic recession this year, believing this increases the justification for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy:
Policy Criticism: Federal Reserve supervisor and popular candidate Kevin Warsh harshly criticized the current predicament of the Fed as 'self-inflicted', arguing that it needs to face strict questioning and supervision, and undergo a strategic reset to restore credibility.
Quiet Period: The Fed has entered the quiet period before the May 7 interest rate meeting, and the market expects this meeting to maintain interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time.
Expectations for interest rate cuts: The market has strong expectations for interest rate cuts, but there are differences regarding the timing.
LSEG data shows that the expectations for interest rate cuts in July have been fully priced in, while there is still a possibility of cuts in June.
CME data shows that the probability of a rate cut in May is below 10%, while in June it is between 60-70%, and July has been fully priced in by the market.
Reasons for interest rate cuts in the market: Besides concerns about economic recession, U.S. banks warn that the dollar is in a long-term devaluation channel, and funds will continue to withdraw from the U.S. until the Fed cuts rates.
Economist Javier Bianchi believes tariffs are a negative demand shock (meaning deflation), and the Fed must cut rates to avoid more severe economic consequences.
Tariff Impact:
Barclays points out that recent relatively moderate tariff remarks from Trump have temporarily calmed the market, but the outcome remains highly uncertain.
Economists believe tariffs are a negative demand shock, producing deflationary effects, which is one reason the Fed needs to cut rates.
Dollar Outlook:
U.S. banks warn that the dollar is in a long-term devaluation channel.
Crypto ecosystem news:
Market Sentiment and Capital Flow:
Market sentiment is warming up: The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has risen to 54 (neutral). The CryptoQuant bull market index has reached 60, indicating that optimistic sentiment has reignited.
Capital inflows into the crypto market: Analyst ali_charts stated that nearly $9 billion flowed into the crypto market over the past week, indicating a resurgence of interest. Matrixport observed initial signs of warming in the conversion of dollars to cryptocurrencies, improving liquidity.
Growth of stablecoins: Tether issued an additional $1 billion USDT on April 28. The total market cap of stablecoins grew by 1.61% over the past 7 days to $238.101 billion.
Demand growth: Analysts believe that the demand for liquidity in BTC and stablecoins has increased again.
Crypto Market (BTC):
Price performance: (BTC) price has rebounded to the range of $93,000 to $95,000.
Short-term traders are active: IntoTheBlock data shows that short-term traders' positions in BTC significantly increased last week, indicating a resurgence in speculative demand, which may signal the beginning of a broader upward trend.
Market expectations: Bitfinex analysts point out that the market increasingly expects BTC to reach higher price levels in the second quarter of 2025.
Crypto (ETF):
BTC Spot ETF: Net inflows last week reached as high as $3.0629 billion. BlackRock IBIT has seen net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, during which it increased its holdings of Bitcoin worth $1.6 billion. The increase in ETF inflows is seen as a reflection of moderate optimism in the market.
ETH Spot ETF: Net inflows last week totaled $157.1 million. Grayscale and the SEC discussed the staking regulatory issues regarding the ETH ETP, proposing to revise the filing documents to allow staking.
XRP Futures ETF: The SEC approved three XRP futures ETFs, which are planned to be listed on April 30, 2025.
Regulation and Policy:
Federal Level (SEC):
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce criticized the current chaotic regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies in the U.S. (like 'playing lava floor games in the dark'), calling for the establishment of clear compliance channels and guidance as soon as possible.
SEC approves XRP futures ETF.
SEC discusses ETH ETF staking issues with Grayscale.
State Level: Two BTC reserve bills are arranged for a third reading in Arizona, which, if passed, would make it the first state to establish a BTC reserve.
Others:
Hong Kong investment fraud case: Hong Kong police warn to be alert to cryptocurrency-related investment scams on social platforms.
Market outlook: The market expects that after the (potential) pause in interest rate cuts, crypto assets will gradually warm up in the summer.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull/bear markets/structural changes/neutral state.
Mid-term Exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the potential for certain events to occur under certain premises.
Long-term Insights
Short-term holders' realization prices
Buy-sell on-chain depth chart
Illiquid long-term whales
U.S. spot ETF flow
Large net transfer amount from exchanges
(Below is the short-term holders' realization price)
On average, the group of investors who recently entered the market is currently in a profitable state. This greatly alleviates the potential selling pressure in the market, as short-term speculators (at $93,600) do not have urgent needs for breakeven or stop-loss, but may enhance their confidence in holding coins or chase entry due to profits.
This is a signal of positive market sentiment and a healthy state of short-term holders.
(Below is the buy-sell on-chain depth chart)
Visually reflects the current on-chain supply-demand structure of the market.
A large amount of on-chain chip buying indicates good market acceptance and depth, with strong willingness to absorb during pullbacks.
(Below is the illiquid long-term whales)
This once again confirms that the speed at which crypto assets transition from a tradable state to a long-term locked state is extremely fast and shows no signs of slowing down.
Reflecting deep, continuous, and strong hoarding behavior in the market, 'active supply' is being rapidly drawn out of the market, and the tightening effect on the supply side is increasingly pronounced, which is an extremely important bullish fundamental for the medium to long term.
(Below is the U.S. spot ETF flow)
New purchasing demand from the key compliance channel of the U.S. spot ETF is not only returning but also maintaining considerable strength and continuity.
This force directly and continuously absorbs BTC supply from the market, serving as an important incremental buyer source for the current market, strongly supporting the price.
(Below is the large net transfer amount from exchanges)
Confirmed that large entities (whales) are continuously and massively withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges.
Their strategic accumulation behavior is still ongoing, further reducing the immediate selling pressure from centralized exchanges and enhancing the market's long-term optimistic expectations.
Comprehensive Analysis and Reasoning Logic Chain:
Starting Point - Macroeconomic Background and Market Sentiment: There are cautious expectations in the macro economy (data expectations are off), but the market has strongly priced in future interest rate cuts. The sentiment in the crypto market has significantly warmed up, and capital inflows have accelerated (macro/news).
Verification - Demand Side Confirmation: On-chain data strongly verifies and reinforces the judgment of capital inflows and demand recovery; continuous strong net inflows into ETFs (Figure 4), active short-term traders who are already profitable (Figure 1), growing demand for BTC and stablecoins (news).
Verification - Core Player Behavior: On-chain data shows that core players are extremely optimistic and taking action; whales continue to withdraw large amounts of coins from exchanges (Figure 5), and the hoarding behavior of long-term holders is still rapidly ongoing (Figure 3 - illiquid long-term whales).
Supply-demand imbalance intensifies: The demand side (ETFs, internal demand) remains strong, while the supply side (whales withdrawing coins, long-term holders continuously hoarding) is rapidly being drawn out of the market, leading to a sharp decrease in circulating supply, creating and intensifying a supply-demand imbalance.
Current: The market is in a healthy upward or consolidating state: short-term holders are reducing selling pressure (Figure 1), there is strong buying support below (Figure 2 on-chain chip buy wall), although there is selling resistance above (Figure 2 on-chain cost sell wall), it faces strong ongoing buying power (Figure 4 ETF + Figure 5 Whales + internal demand), and supply continues to tighten (Figure 3 long illiquid long-term whales).
Core Driving Force: The main driving force of the current market comes from structural supply-demand imbalance (new demand introduced by ETFs, whales and LTHs also known as long-term holders) continuously accumulating leading to reduced supply, as well as a strong expectation for future macro liquidity improvement (interest rate cuts).
Future Outlook:
Mid to short term: High probability of oscillating upwards, challenging key resistance points.
Strong on-chain support (Figure 2 buy wall, Figure 5 whales continuously buying) and continuous demand injection (Figure 4 ETF inflow) will limit downward space. Short-term holders' profits (Figure 1) have reduced the risk of panic selling. The market is likely to continue testing upwards, with the main challenges coming from short-term speculators' sell walls at certain profit percentages, like $101,000 or $116,000.
The future market is inclined towards oscillating upwards or strong consolidation at high levels. Breaking through key resistance levels like $100,000 to $101,000 is the main focus in the short term, which requires ETF inflows and whale purchases to continuously absorb the selling pressure above.
Pullbacks are expected to encounter strong support.
Mid to Long Term: Driven by the tightening supply effect, there is great potential for upward movement.
As long as the two core trends of continuous net outflows from whales (Figure 5) and non-liquid long-term whales maintain rapid growth (Figure 3) remain unchanged, the effect of supply tightening will become increasingly significant.
Over time, fewer and fewer 'active' bitcoins are available for trading. If macroeconomic expectations for interest rate cuts are met, combined with continuous structural demand brought by ETFs (Figure 4), it may trigger a more intense 'supply squeeze' market.
Outlook: The mid to long-term prospects are very optimistic. Based on the currently extremely strong on-chain fundamentals (rapid supply locking + continuous demand injection), the market is laying a solid foundation for the next significant upward trend. After breaking through key resistance levels (such as $100k), the upward space is expected to further open up, with specific rhythms influenced by macro catalysts, but on-chain structure has pointed to a clear upward trend.
Mid-term Exploration
Liquidity Supply
Net Position of Stablecoin Supply
Whale Comprehensive Score Model
Analysis of Structural Levels at Various Price Points
Net Position Trend of Exchanges
(Below is the liquidity supply)
Liquidity supply is in a healthy recovery state, and the market may temporarily be in a phase of slowly regaining momentum.
(Below is the net position of stablecoin supply)
Purchasing power has recently seen a significant recovery, suggesting that the market may be slowly accumulating momentum.
(Below is the Whale Comprehensive Score Model)
Whales still have a strong willingness to buy and hold; during the recent overall upward trend in the market, whales have maintained a 'very high' state.
The current market has a solid large group holding, which may significantly help stabilize prices. However, conversely, the consistent behavior of whales can also affect the final outcome of the market.
(Below is the analysis of structural levels at various price points)
From the current structure, a short-term cost of around 93000 is an important support level.
At the same time, as the market structure evolves, the stock top price is around 100000.
If purchasing power continues to increase, or if the whales' willingness to hold has not decreased, the market may have expectations of touching the stock top.
However, the current market may lean towards a complex structure of adjustment and energy accumulation overlapping.
As can be seen from the figure below.
(Below is the net position trend of exchanges)
Within the exchange, there was previously a large outflow accumulation of BTC, which has now slowed down.
However, so far, there have been no structural changes indicating inflow accumulation of potential selling pressure, and the market may still be within a safe boundary of adjustment.
Short-term observation
Derivatives risk coefficient
Options implied transaction ratio
Derivatives trading volume
Options implied volatility
Profit-loss transfer amount
New addresses and active addresses
Net position of Ice Sugar Orange Exchange
Net position of Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Net position of stablecoin exchanges
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives Rating: The risk coefficient is in the red zone, indicating increased risk in derivatives.
(Below is the derivatives risk coefficient)
After a long-awaited market short squeeze, the risk coefficient remains in the red zone. Currently, combined with the risk coefficient and chip accumulation situation, the probability of further short squeezing is quite high.
(Below is the options implied transaction ratio)
The proportion and trading volume of put options have both decreased, and the current proportion of put options is at a medium-high level.
(Below is the derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volume is at a medium-low level.
(Below is the implied volatility of options)
The implied volatility of options has not changed much in the short term.
Sentiment State Rating: Neutral
(Below is the profit-loss transfer amount)
This market surge has led to a noticeable rebound in market sentiment (blue line), reaching a short-term extreme zone. Overall, the current market is still in a calm neutral state and has not truly entered a frenzy stage.
(Below is the new addresses and active addresses)
New active addresses are at a medium-low level.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, BTC continues to flow out in large amounts, while ETH has only seen a small outflow.
(Below is the net position of the Ice Sugar Orange Exchange)
Currently, there is a large outflow of BTC.
(Below is the net position of the E-Exchange)
On the surface, the net position of ETH in exchanges continues to flow out, but in fact, observing the blue line, the net position balance of ETH in exchanges is almost equivalent to the market peak period in December. In the short term, the selling pressure of ETH on the market will still persist.
(Below is the high-weight selling pressure)
No high-weight selling pressure.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has slightly rebounded, while stablecoin purchasing power remains flat.
(Below is the global purchasing power status)
Global purchasing power has slightly rebounded.
(Below is the net position of USDT in exchanges)
Overall stablecoin purchasing power is consistent with last week.
Off-chain trading data rating: This week the data website malfunctioned, and there is no off-chain trading data.
Weekly Summary:
Summary of news:
The market is currently in a special stage where macro cautious expectations coexist with strong recovery signals within crypto, exhibiting certain 'decoupling' characteristics.
The crypto market is driven by strong ETF capital inflows, warming market sentiment, and active short-term traders, showing strong endogenous momentum, seemingly trading ahead of future interest rate cut expectations.
In the short term, this optimistic momentum is expected to continue, but caution is warranted regarding potential volatility from key macro data this week.
The core driving force of the mid-term market will be the actual realization of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations.
In the long term, the foundation of a structural bull market is further strengthened by the current positive developments.
On-chain Long-term Insights:
The internal market structure is extremely healthy and strong, manifested as strong demand (continuous inflows of ETFs);
Core players are firmly accumulating (whales withdrawing large amounts of coins);
Supply is rapidly locking (illiquid long-term whales are surging);
Short-term holders have freed themselves from loss pressure.
Market Positioning:
The market has upward momentum or support capability in the short term;
In the medium to long term, the intensifying supply-demand imbalance is laying the groundwork for a potential 'supply squeeze' market and more significant upward movements, with an overall positive outlook.
On-chain Mid-term Exploration:
Liquidity is undergoing a healthy recovery, and market momentum is gradually rising.
Purchasing power has significantly rebounded, and the market is poised to accumulate energy.
Whales have a strong willingness to hold coins, currently supporting the price.
Current support level is 93000, with a stock top of 100000, the market is in an accumulation adjustment.
The trend of outflows from exchanges has slowed down and is currently within a safe boundary of adjustment.
Market Positioning:
Adjustment, energy accumulation
The market is overall in a complex structure of adjustment and energy accumulation, currently showing liquidity recovery, with whales willing to buy and hold, and the market remains stable.
On-chain short-term observation:
Risk coefficient is in the red zone, indicating increased risk in derivatives.
New active addresses are at a medium-low level.
Market sentiment state rating: Neutral.
Overall net positions in exchanges show a continuous large outflow of BTC, while ETH has only seen a small outflow.
Global purchasing power has slightly rebounded, while stablecoin purchasing power remains flat.
In the short term, the probability of not breaking below 75000~80000 is 80%; among them, the probability of not breaking above 95000~100000 in the short term is 50%.
Market Positioning:
The market has broken through the short-term holders' cost line (93K) and has a large amount of trading chips near this price level, with positive market sentiment and purchasing power showing slight recovery. In the short term, there is a significant likelihood that the market will continue to squeeze shorts after oscillating around the current price level, with a low risk of a pullback.
Risk Warning:
The above are all discussions and explorations of the market and do not constitute directional opinions for investment; please be cautious and guard against market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the 'WTR' Research Institute.
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