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Weekly Review
From April 14 to April 21 of this week, the Ice Sugar Orange reached a maximum of around $88,465 and a minimum close to $83,111, with a fluctuation range of about 6.44%.
Observing the chip distribution map, there are a large number of chips traded around 80,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
Analysis:
60000-68000 approximately 1.59 million BTC;
76000-89000 approximately 1.83 million BTC;
90000-100000 approximately 1.96 million BTC;
In the short term, there is an 80% probability that the price will not break below 70,000 to 75,000;
Among them, there is a 70% probability that it will not break above 90,000 to 95,000 in the short term.
In terms of important news
In terms of economic news
The US dollar index is weak, continuously breaking below 100, 99, and 98 levels.
Gold prices surged 3% to $3,430 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of about 30% this year, hitting 55 historical highs in the past 12 months.
Trump continues to pressure Powell: publicly criticizing him multiple times, calling him 'Mr. Too Late', 'a major loser', asserting that interest rates should have been cut long ago, blaming Powell for delays, and calling for 'preemptive rate cuts'. He attributes the decline in US stocks and recession risks to Powell's failure to cut rates.
Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence in the market: Analysts believe that the news of Trump replacing Powell is one of the triggers for recent market volatility, with the core concern being that the market is worried about the erosion of the Fed's independence.
Political pressure impact: An economics professor believes that while Trump may find it difficult to fire Powell, his public pressure will influence Fed decision-making, making them aware that if the economy falls into recession and rates are not cut, they will face public backlash.
Expectations for interest rate cuts are rising: The market is widely focused on and betting that the Federal Reserve may turn to an easing policy in June or summer. CME FedWatch shows a probability of about 75% for a June rate cut. Citibank maintains an expectation of a 125 basis points rate cut by 2025, anticipating the next rate cut in June.
Rate cuts have become the core narrative: The market anticipates entering the 'rate cut storyline' in June, serving as the narrative driving force for the next phase of the market.
European Central Bank and digital euro:
The European Central Bank (ECB) report predicts that the digital euro will replace some paper currency, changing the way money is used and impacting bank deposits.
The ECB emphasizes that the launch of the digital euro is to respond to the rise of dollar stablecoins and other cryptocurrencies, and to curb the expansion of 'de-banking' solutions.
In terms of crypto ecosystem news
BTC's correlation with gold has strengthened: On Monday, BTC briefly exhibited safe-haven properties alongside gold, but then fell under the drag of US stocks. Recent analysis suggests that BTC is influenced by rising gold prices, aligning the safe-haven narrative with the weak dollar and uncertainty in US debt.
BTC price briefly exceeded $87,000, believed to be related to the dollar's decline, gold's rise, and concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence.
CryptoQuant analysts believe that the current situation is more likely a correction rather than the start of a bear market, as the previous rise was moderate and overheated to a limited extent, with controllable downside risks.
Altcoin market: Coinmarketcap data shows that while the altcoin season index has rebounded from its low point, it is still far below the average of previous months, indicating a slight market recovery. Matrixport believes that a large-scale rise in altcoins requires catalysts such as dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, stablecoin growth, or an increase in macro liquidity.
The South Korean BTC premium rate (kimchi premium) has rebounded to about 2%, seen by some analysts as an early sign of strong demand and potential price rebound.
Bottoming and narrative transition expectations: The market is concerned whether BTC and altcoins have hit bottom and looks forward to transitioning to the next narrative phase centered on 'Federal Reserve rate cuts in June.'
Last week, the cumulative net inflow of the US BTC spot ETF was only $13.7 million, while the ETH spot ETF saw a net outflow of $32.3 million, indicating a weakening inflow momentum.
Institutional and whale dynamics:
Japanese listed company Metaplanet increased its holdings by 330 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 4,855 BTC.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) spent about $556 million to increase its holdings by 6,556 BTC over a week, at an average price of about $84,785. Saylor claims that over 13,000 institutions and 814,000 retail investors hold MSTR.
Glassnode data shows that the number of 'whale' addresses holding over 1,000 BTC has increased from 2,037 at the end of February to 2,107 by April 15, approaching last year's end level; while addresses holding less than 10 BTC continue to decrease.
Regulatory and policy dynamics:
Progress in state-level legislation in the US:
Texas will hold a hearing on the (BTC strategic reserve and investment bill).
Arizona's (Strategic Digital Asset Reserve Bill) (SB 1373) has passed the House committee and still requires subsequent voting and approval.
Federal-level perspective: Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed that if the US government purchases BTC using gold certificates valued at 1974 levels, it could halve the national debt in 20 years without additional tax funding.
Regulatory risk is decreasing: Matrixport analysis believes that BTC's regulatory risk in the US has significantly decreased, which is one of the reasons for its better performance during this adjustment period compared to the past.
Development of digital euro: The European Central Bank is actively promoting the digital euro project to respond to the challenges of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins.
Long-term Insights: Used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of certain directions and events occurring under specific premises.
Long-term Insights
$92.4k is a key price point. For many short-term holders (STH) who bought at recent highs, this is their average cost line.
The anchoring effect will play a significant role here:
When the price rebounds close to $92.4k, this batch of stuck STH will have a strong impulse to 'sell once they break even' to avoid further losses.
This will create a visible supply pressure wall.
The short-term direction of the market largely depends on whether it can effectively absorb and break through the resistance constituted by STH's liquidation.
If it fails to break through: If the price attempts to hit $92.4k multiple times and fails, or encounters large sell-offs at this point and falls back, it will strengthen the market's pessimistic sentiment.
STH may lose patience, triggering a larger-scale sell-off (surrender-style selling), and prices may further dip to seek lower support. This may also slow down the whales who are accumulating, waiting for better prices.
If successfully broken through: If there is sufficiently strong buying power (such as sustained ETF inflows or further whale accumulation) to absorb the liquidation pressure at $92.4k and push the price to effectively stabilize above it, this will be an extremely important positive signal.
It not only relieves the pressure on STH but may also trigger short covering and off-exchange FOMO sentiment, accelerating price increases.
Previously, 'massive outflows' represented whales aggressively accumulating and locking in chips at low price levels without regard for cost. Now, a 'relatively reduced' outflow may signify:
Has the most panicked/valuable phase passed? Whales may believe that the phase for easily acquiring cheap chips has passed, and their initial accumulation targets may have been partially achieved.
Tactical pause? They may be waiting for clearer market signals (such as macro news landing, confirmation of price direction) before proceeding with the next large-scale operations.
Change in accumulation methods? They may have shifted from concentrated exchange withdrawals to more discreet OTC trades or other methods.
The marginal decrease in whale outflow means that the strongest active buying force in the market may weaken in the short term.
This may make it more difficult to break through the $92.4k pressure wall, or prolong the market's consolidation time in the current area.
This is not necessarily a bearish signal (as it is still net outflow), but it implies that the possibility of relying on whale 'aggressive buying' in the short term is decreasing.
If outflows continue to decrease or even turn into net inflows:
This will be a strong warning signal indicating that the willingness of whales to accumulate has reversed, and the market may face real selling pressure, seriously weakening the bullish logic previously built.
If outflow maintains at a 'relatively reduced' level:
The market may enter a phase dominated more by other factors (such as ETF flows, retail sentiment, news) where volatility may decrease, but directionality may also become more ambiguous, requiring more time to build a bottom or await a catalyst.
If outflows re-expand:
Confirms that the whales are merely making a temporary adjustment, and the willingness to accumulate remains strong, which is very favorable for the market to break through key resistance.
This 'very large' single-day inflow occurred against a backdrop of strong macro risk aversion and price corrections, and its driving force is likely the traditional capital's 'hedging/bottom-fishing' allocation demand, viewing BTC as an alternative asset similar to gold. Its significance lies in proving that the ETF channel can still attract large amounts of capital under specific conditions, and this portion of capital may have higher sensitivity to price.
The key lies in continuity:
Is this pulse a 'one-day' event or the beginning of a new trend? This directly relates to whether the market can gain continuous external liquidity.
If inflows continue:
Will provide strong incremental buying power for the market, greatly enhancing the ability to break through the $92.4k pressure wall, and may attract more following funds.
If inflows quickly dry up:
This indicates that this is merely a short-term stress response, and the market still needs to rely on internal forces (whales, LTH belief) to digest selling pressure, making it more difficult to break through $92.4k.
This is the most solid and structurally meaningful positive signal.
It is independent of short-term price fluctuations and emotions, reflecting the deep, ongoing trend of supply locking in the market. This continuous tightening on the supply side is a core benefit for the medium to long term, continually raising the supply hurdle that future price increases need to overcome.
It acts like a 'slow variable', continuously providing support for the market, increasing the difficulty of deep corrections, and laying the foundation for future supply squeeze events.
This can partially hedge against the uncertainty brought by STH pressure and short-term changes in whale behavior.
Future Outlook:
The current market is at a critical juncture of fierce confrontation between STH pressure (the $92.4k anchoring effect) and strong underlying accumulation (whale outflows + rapid growth of ISSR + ETF pulse inflows).
Macroeconomic news (strong expectations for interest rate cuts but pending, geopolitical risks, Trump's remarks, etc.) adds great uncertainty and volatility to this confrontation.
Evolution of core contradictions:
Previously, it might have been a comprehensive tug-of-war between bulls and bears, but now it feels more like the 'willingness of stuck STH to break free' versus 'the determination of whales/long-term holders/new ETF funds to accumulate.'
Response path:
Short-term focus ($92.4k offense and defense battle): The reduced outflow from whales may make the short-term breakthrough of $92.4k more dependent on the continuity of ETF inflows and the patience of the ISSR accumulation effect. If ETF inflows cannot be sustained, and whales do not re-energize, relying solely on ISSR (non-liquid whales) as a slow variable may struggle to quickly break through $92.4k, and the market may repeatedly tug-of-war in this area, consuming STH patience.
If $92.4k cannot be effectively broken through after prolonged attempts: It may trigger deeper despair selling from STH, at which point it is necessary to observe whether whales will increase outflows again (buying on dips) and whether ISSR (non-liquid whales) can continue to grow rapidly to absorb this supply. If whales do not take over or the growth rate of non-liquid whales slows, the market may enter a deeper adjustment.
If $92.4k is effectively broken through: It will greatly improve market sentiment, potentially triggering a positive feedback loop: STH pressure relieved -> off-exchange funds enter due to confirmation of the breakthrough -> may stimulate continued ETF inflows -> price increase further reinforces the ISSR's 'stockpiling' logic -> whales may continue to increase holdings or lock in profits as the trend continues.
Macroeconomic 'unique factors': Any clear signals regarding Federal Reserve policies (preemptive rate cuts/postponing rate cuts/changes in intensity) could instantly break the current balance and become a key catalyst determining the short-term direction.
Mid-term exploration
Network sentiment positivity
Price structure analysis model at various levels
ETH exchange circulation ratio
Derivatives unilateral state
Long-term and short-term holding supply
(Below is the network sentiment positivity)
Network sentiment shows signs of recovery, and the emotions in the market may be slowly repairing. From recent conditions, if the repair continues, a better right-side structure may emerge.
(Below is the price structure analysis model at various levels)
The current stock limit is around 95,000, which may face significant profit overflow pressure as it gradually approaches this price level in the market.
At the same time, the current short-term cost line is around 920,000, which may be a closer upper price limit to the stock limit.
(Below is the ETH exchange circulation ratio)
Currently, BTC accounts for a higher proportion of internal circulation on exchanges.
This usually indicates that the focus in the market will be on BTC, and relatively good circulation efficiency is increasing turnover smoothness.
Similarly, from another perspective, under the trend of continuous accumulation of BTC, the concentration of liquidity in the market on BTC also reflects a certain risk aversion tendency.
(Below is the derivatives unilateral state)
This data is produced by WTR based on the liquidation status of BTC.
Blue represents a strong bearish phase, orange represents a strong bullish phase.
Currently in a strong bullish range.
(Below is the long-term and short-term holding supply)
From the surface, the trading volume of short-term chips remains low, and the market is still in a state of increasing long-term chips.
The current speculative atmosphere may be gradually dissipating, with relatively long-term holdings increasing.
Short-term observation
Derivatives risk coefficient
Options intention trading ratio
Derivatives trading volume
Implied volatility of options
Profit and loss transfer amount
New addresses and active addresses
Ice Sugar Orange exchange net position
Auntie exchange net position
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net position
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives Rating: Risk coefficient is in the red zone, indicating increased derivatives risk.
(Below is the derivatives risk coefficient)
BTC price has rebounded slightly, and the market is not fully squeezed out yet, and the risk coefficient is already in the red zone. For the current market environment, there may be sustained short squeezes this week, even if the extent is relatively low.
(Below is the options intention trading ratio)
The proportion and trading volume of put options have both decreased, and the current proportion of put options is at a medium-high level.
(Below is the derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volume is at a medium-low level.
(Below is the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility of options has not changed significantly in the short term.
Sentiment state rating: Neutral
(Below is the profit and loss transfer amount)
Market positive sentiment (blue line) and panic sentiment (orange line) remain at low levels, with expectations that even if there is a rebound in the short term, the potential space will be limited.
(Below is the new addresses and active addresses)
New active addresses are at a low level.
Overall rating of spot and selling pressure structure: BTC is continuously flowing out in large amounts, while ETH has only a small outflow.
(Below is the Ice Sugar Orange exchange net position)
Currently, BTC has a large outflow.
(Below is the ETH exchange net position)
On the surface, the net position of ETH in exchanges is continuously flowing out, but actually observing the blue line, the net position balance of ETH in exchanges is almost equivalent to that at the market peak in December. In the short term, the selling pressure of ETH in the market will still persist.
(Below is the high-weight selling pressure)
No high-weight selling pressure.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, and stablecoin purchasing power remains flat.
(Below is the global purchasing power status)
Last week, purchasing power showed a slight recovery but has again entered a state of decline this week.
(Below is the USDT exchange net position)
Stablecoin purchasing power is overall flat compared to last week.
Off-chain trading data rating: There is a buying willingness at 80,000; there is a selling willingness at 92,000.
(Below is Coinbase's off-chain data)
There is a buying willingness around the price level of 70,000 to 80,000;
There is a selling willingness around the price level of 90,000 to 95,000.
(Below is Binance's off-chain data)
There is a buying willingness around the price level of 70,000 to 80,000;
There is a selling willingness around the price level of 92,000.
(Below is Bitfinex's off-chain data)
There is a buying willingness around the price level of 70,000 and 83,000;
There is a selling willingness around the price level of 92,000.
Weekly Summary:
Summary of news:
The current market is shrouded in strong macro uncertainty, which is evidenced by the significant pressure on the US stock market and the soaring gold price hitting new highs, with strong risk aversion dominating traditional capital markets.
The focus is almost entirely on the Federal Reserve, with political pressure (especially from Trump's ongoing attacks on Powell) intertwined with the market's extremely high expectations for interest rate cuts, making the future monetary policy path a core variable that affects the overall situation.
In this context, the crypto asset field, especially Bitcoin, presents a complex and differentiated picture:
On one hand, it shows a certain resilience amid the macro storm, as the recent flow of US spot ETF funds has shifted from significant net outflows to slight net inflows, which is a key marginal improvement signal, indicating that the selling pressure from traditional channels has been temporarily alleviated, allowing the market to breathe at a critical position;
On the other hand, this stabilization is not due to strong new demand, but is in stark contrast to the 'determined behavior of core participants'—institutions like MicroStrategy and on-chain 'whale' addresses continue to accumulate chips aggressively, showing strong long-term belief, while small holders show a trend of outflow.
At the same time, the marginal improvement of the regulatory environment in the US also provides potential long-term support for the market.
Therefore, the current core contradiction lies in the tug-of-war between 'external macro pressure and internal structural forces (ETF stabilization, core player accumulation, positive regulatory outlook)', which may cause the market to continue maintaining a volatile pattern in the short term, being highly sensitive to macro signals (especially the Federal Reserve's movements), and waiting for clearer catalysts to break the deadlock.
On-chain long-term insights:
Current price is operating below the average cost of short-term holders (around $92.4k), putting recent entrants under pressure with unrealized losses, and may create a selling pressure wall around $92.4k due to the anchoring effect.
The dominant signal recently has been large whales significantly net withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges, showing a strong strategic accumulation willingness and optimism for future prices, significantly reducing the short-term available large supply.
After experiencing weakness, the ETF has recently seen a very significant single-day net inflow, indicating a strong pulse of demand from compliant channels, injecting important buying power into the market.
The ratio of non-liquid whales has continued to rise sharply, indicating that BTC is being locked away for the long term and exiting circulation at a high speed, with the fundamental market supply continuing to tighten rapidly.
Market tone:
The core feature of the current market state is the contrast and fierce confrontation between the surface price pressure (below the short-term holder cost line) and the extremely strong underlying on-chain accumulation (large whale withdrawals, non-liquid whale demand locking, ETF demand pulses).
This indicates that the market is undergoing a deep correction or 'washout' dominated by strong buying forces, with recent entrants ('weak hands') under pressure, while long-term bullish 'strong hands' are actively absorbing and locking in supply, leading to a fundamentally extremely tight supply and demand situation.
Therefore, although the struggle around the key cost level (around $92.4k) may bring volatility in the short term, the overwhelming positive signals on-chain suggest that the market is likely to digest pressure, confirm the bottom, and accumulate strength for the next phase of the upward trend based on reinforced fundamentals.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
Network sentiment is slowly repairing, or there may be right-side structural opportunities.
Stock limit around 95,000, significant profit pressure as it approaches; short-term cost at 92,000, may constitute a resistance level.
BTC dominates exchange circulation, turnover is smooth and risk aversion tendencies are evident.
WTR's liquidation status shows that it is currently in a strong bullish phase.
Short-term speculative atmosphere is decreasing, long-term holdings are increasing.
Market tone:
Repair, accumulation
The market is seeking stability, and sentiment is gradually stabilizing, with BTC dominating liquidity and long-term holdings increasing.
On-chain short-term observation:
Risk coefficient is in the red zone, indicating increased derivatives risk.
New active addresses are currently at a low level.
Market sentiment state rating: Neutral.
The net positions on exchanges are overall showing a continuous large outflow of BTC, with only a small outflow of ETH.
Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, and stablecoin purchasing power remains flat.
On-chain trading data shows buying willingness at 80,000; selling willingness at 92,000.
In the short term, there is an 80% probability that the price will not break below 70,000 to 75,000; among them, there is a 70% probability that it will not break above 90,000 to 95,000 in the short term.
Market tone:
The market will continue to be dominated by BTC, while market sentiment remains neutral. This week, in the absence of external news stimulus, the market's rebound space will still be limited by the short-term holder cost line (92K).
Risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations, and do not provide directional opinions on investments; please treat them with caution and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the 'WTR' research institute.
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