🌍 Why is a crisis not scary, but profitable?
Friends, a crisis is not a catastrophe, but an opportunity. Those who can predict it do not lose money, but earn. Today we will discuss how to read the economy like an open book.
🔄 Economic cycles: From growth to collapse
The economy moves in spirals:
1️⃣ Recovery 📈 (GDP is growing, companies are reviving)
2️⃣ Peak 🚀 (maximum consumption, credits, and prices)
3️⃣ Stagnation 🐢 (slowdown, rising unemployment)
4️⃣ Crisis 💥 (market crash, panic)
Example: 2020 — Covid-19 crashed the GDP, but smart investors bought assets at the bottom and earned +200-300%.
🔍 3 Stages of a crisis: How not to miss the moment
1. Event-driven 🦠 (pandemics, wars)
- What to do? Keep an eye on news and liquidity.
2. Commodity ⛽ (fall in oil and metal prices)
- What to do? Monitor commodity markets.
3. Financial 💸 (bank failures, devaluation)
- What to do? Transfer assets to safe havens (dollars, gold).
📊 4 Main indicators of a crisis
1. Income > Expenses 💰
- If people save rather than spend — expect a crisis in 6-9 months.
2. GDP is negative 📉
- 2 quarters of decline = recession.
3. Inflation + devaluation 🏦
- Flight to the dollar — a sure sign of trouble.
4. Key interest rate of the Central Bank 📉
- Sharp decline = panic signal.
💡 5 Rules for a crisis
1. Keep 20% in liquidity 💵 (dollars, gold).
2. Keep an eye on commodities ⛽ (oil, gas, metals — these fall first).
3. Avoid debt 🚫 (loans in a crisis — a pit).
4. Buy cheap 🛒 (stocks, real estate at the bottom).
5. Don't panic 🧘 (a crisis is a time for a cool head).
🚨 Examples of crises
2008 🏠 (housing bubble) — those who bought stocks in 2009 had a x5 return by 2015.
2014 ₽ (ruble crash) — those who held foreign currency preserved their capital.
2020 🦠 (COVID) — Amazon and Tesla soared by 300%.
📌 Conclusion: Crisis = Your chance
Remember: crises are cyclical. Those who are prepared do not lose, but earn.
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💬 P.S. Are you ready for the next crisis? Share your strategies in the comments! 👇