Ethereum's Life and Death Situation: The Cruel Truth After Data Correction and Hopes for Breakthrough
Exchange Rate Shock: ETH/BTC falls to 0.021, hitting a new low of 3 years and 7 months, a cumulative drop of 76.8% compared to before the POS transformation
Capital Flow: Bitcoin ETF sees a net inflow for 18 consecutive weeks, while Ethereum ETF has seen a net outflow of $530 million in the past 45 days
On-Chain Live Situation:
Gas fee revenue down 63% year-on-year
The growth rate of new addresses has dropped to 1.2%/month (8.7% in the same period of 2023)
Total market capitalization of L2 tokens reaches $38 billion, accounting for 14.3% of ETH's market value
Three Major Bearish Pressures
Ecosystem Bleeding: Trading volume of the top ten DEX shrinks to $7.1 billion/month (peak of $42 billion in 2024), VC investment down 82% year-on-year
L2 Siphoning: The average token circulation of leading Layer 2 projects is only 12%, with the rest used for teams and institutions to cash out
Regulatory Kill Shot: The latest SEC document raises the probability of classifying ETH as securities to 8, while the ETF approval rate drops to 6.5%
Bullish Bottom Card Verification
Whales Bottom Fishing: A mysterious address accumulated 3.1 million ETH (about $5.8 billion) in May, concentrated in the $1,600-$1,800 range
Derivatives Betting: The open interest of $4,000 call options on Deribit reaches 230,000 contracts, accounting for 41% of the total
Technical Variables: After the Cancun upgrade, L2 fees actually decreased by 88%, but user growth did not meet expectations
Operational Strategy Adjustment
Short-term Warning: If ETH/BTC falls below 0.019, it may trigger algorithmic liquidation (about 7 million ETH collateral positions)
Mid-term Window: If Bitcoin breaks $100,000, the upper limit of ETH's rise is revised to $2,800
Long-term Life and Death Line: Staking APR needs to maintain above **3.2%** (currently 2.7%), otherwise it will trigger large-scale exits from nodes
Now that the market has corrected, the bull market will start soon. I have carefully selected an altcoin expected to rise 5 times. Comment + like for free sharing
