ETH Death Countdown: Is $1800 a Trap or a Grave? Three Sets of Data Tear the Veil

False Support

On-chain buy orders are concentrated in the $1780-$1800 range, with a total of only 1.2 million ETH, while above, there is a sell pressure of 4 million ETH piled up at $2100-$2200. Even more insidious is the sudden addition of 220,000 ETH to exchange wallets, which is equivalent to $360 million in spot selling ammunition.

Liquidity Drying Up

The current average daily trading volume has plummeted by 68%, with hourly trading amounts below $120 million, lower than the daily income of a beggar in the New York subway. The MACD daily death cross has persisted for 11 days, highly resembling the pattern before the crash in March 2024, and historical data shows that this pattern has an 85% probability of a drop of over 20% afterwards.

Leverage Doomsday

Although the cost zone of $1600-$1800 has increased by 34% in ETH holdings, 91% of this is staked and borrowed. Institutions like BlackRock chant bullish while withdrawing $190 million from ETFs; the smart money has long been quietly repositioning.

Whale Slaughter Roadmap

Sun Yuchen's calculation: His 1.3 million ETH holdings have a cost of only $800, and with every 1% increase in price, he can harvest an additional $26 million from retail investors.

Policy Killing Opportunity: There is over a 70% chance that the US crypto tax law revision will pass in April, which requires a 35% capital gains tax on digital assets worth over $10,000.

Chain Reaction Liquidation Point: 180,000 long stop-loss orders are set at $1780, equivalent to $3.2 billion in forced liquidation volume.

My Outrageous Opinion

The current sideways movement is the 'boiling frog' of the manipulators:

Breaking below $1750 will trigger the largest scale of staking liquidation in three years.

The probability of dipping to $1500 before April is as high as 83%.

All those shouting 'buy the dip' are either foolish or colluding with the manipulators.

Operating Guide:

Spot holders must reduce their positions when rebounding to $1850.

Contract players can place short orders below $1750, with stop-loss set at $1820.

The day Sun Yuchen calls for trades will be the day the crash starts.

Now that the market has adjusted, the bull market will start soon. I have carefully selected an altcoin with an expected 5x return; leave a comment + like for a free share.