The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is very likely to cut rates by 25 basis points, and this expectation has almost been digested by the market, so it is estimated that it will not cause too much fluctuation.
Looking back at last year when the dollar interest rates were high, the market was in chaos; it has indeed turned a page now. From the latest interest rate dot plot, there is still room for three rate cuts in 2024, and the trend of dollar liquidity is becoming increasingly obvious.
The main reason Bitcoin can surge to $100,000 this round is still due to two forces: first, the market believes the Federal Reserve is going to loosen monetary policy, making money more available; second, the expansion of U.S. stock ETFs makes it easier for institutional funds to enter and exit, which is equivalent to providing the crypto sector with an ATM.
However, there has recently been a strange phenomenon — even though funds are continuously flowing in, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum have stagnated. Especially Ethereum, which is performing more steadily at $4,000 than it did at $4,800 last year. What does this indicate?
Three key signals are worth noting:
The pricing power of Bitcoin has not yet been monopolized by institutions; miners and long-term holders still have the chips to influence the market, and they may be quietly cashing out at high prices;
Altcoins have collectively wilted; many cryptocurrencies have halved in the past two weeks, clearly indicating that speculative funds are fleeing high-volatility assets for safety;
Institutions are starting to withdraw while fighting; although they claim to be optimistic in the long term, some funds have already taken profits at high levels, as evidenced by Bitcoin ETFs showing a net outflow for two consecutive weeks.
But don’t panic; this adjustment feels more like a halftime break. The traditional peak season at the end of the year is approaching, and the bull market cycle is far from over.
In terms of operations, you can play it this way: those who have already reduced their positions can start to accumulate some cheaper chips in batches, but the total position should not exceed the previous level, and at least 30% cash should be kept on hand. Once the market digests this round of profit-taking, there is a high probability of a second wave of market movement.
Now that the market has adjusted, the bull market will soon kick off. I have carefully selected an altcoin with an expected 5x return for everyone; leave a comment + like, and I will share it for free.
