Could gold going on-chain be beneficial for Bitcoin? NYDIG reveals new trends!
Greg Cipolaro, head of research at NYDIG, proposed that 'the U.S. gold reserves going on-chain could have a positive impact on Bitcoin,' sparking market discussion. Although the attributes of gold and Bitcoin are significantly different, if gold goes on-chain, it would provide an official application scenario for blockchain technology, potentially enhancing the recognition of the cryptocurrency market in the long term or indirectly. Especially in the context of the Federal Reserve accelerating the exploration of the digital dollar, the digitalization of traditional assets may inject new narratives into 'digital assets' like Bitcoin.
Latest data revision:
The divergence between gold and Bitcoin: the current spot price of gold is reported at $2,338 (near historical highs), while Bitcoin's current price is $62,300, down 2.3% from the previous day, with the phenomenon of funds diversion continuing.
ETF fund weakness: BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF has seen zero inflows for two consecutive days, and Grayscale's GBTC experienced a net outflow of $120 million in a single day;
Altcoins are experiencing a deep correction: MEME coins like PEPE and WIF have narrowed their 24-hour drop to 12%, and the total liquidation amount across the network has decreased to $180 million.
Core logic update:
1. Macroeconomic pressure escalates: The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in June drops to 45%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is reported at 4.65%, putting pressure on risk assets;
2. Increased on-chain selling pressure: Bitcoin miners transferred over 9,000 BTC to exchanges in the past week, with an average cost of $63,000, and short-term selling pressure needs to be digested;
3. Institutional movements: MicroStrategy has once again increased its holdings by 122 BTC, but it has not significantly boosted market sentiment.
Adjustment of operational thinking:
Short term: $62,000 is a key support level; if it breaks down on high volume, it may test the psychological level of $60,000; if the rebound fails to hold above $63,500, it is recommended to reduce long positions.
Long-term: The narrative of gold on-chain needs to be evaluated in conjunction with Bitcoin breaking the $68,000 resistance level, currently maintaining a low position and observing.
Risk warning:
1. Gold going on-chain is still in the conceptual stage; the actual landing period and impact are uncertain;
2. The selling pressure from miners may continue until the third quarter after Bitcoin's halving, and changes in on-chain data should be monitored.
Personal opinion:
In the short term, the market is dominated by macro sentiment, and the diversion of funds from gold is unfavorable for the crypto space. Ordinary investors need to be clear: do not blindly catch the falling knife before the trend reverses, and do not heavily bet on a direction.
How do you think gold going on-chain will affect cryptocurrencies? Feel free to discuss rationally~
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