The second half of the 2025 bull market.
1. Policy upheaval: Trump's crypto 'nuclear button' has been activated.
"The U.S. must become a Bitcoin superpower"—Trump's declaration is rewriting the flow of global capital.
• Strategic reserve expansion: Following Bitcoin, Trump hinted at the Blockworks Summit to include XRP and Solana in the national strategic reserve. This signal directly drove SOL to rise by 9% in a day, with 16 of the top 20 tokens showing signs of institutional buying.
• Regulatory easing: The U.S. Treasury lifts sanctions on Tornado Cash, and the SEC abandons the appeal against XRP, marking the beginning of the 'compliance easing' era. Historical experience shows that regulatory clarity often accompanies market valuation reconstruction (refer to Japan's Bitcoin legalization market in 2017).
• Geopolitical game: China signals the 'investment value of Bitcoin', Hong Kong accelerates the introduction of spot ETFs, and the competitive relationship between global central bank digital currencies (like digital RMB) and crypto assets is giving rise to a new round of sovereign capital cold war.
The policy tailwind has arrived, and the crypto market has leaped from the 'gray area' to a strategic tool for major powers. This is the most drastic reconstruction of the global monetary order since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system!
2. Market reaction: Bitcoin's 'golden pit' emerges, Meme coins stage a doomsday carnival.
1. Bitcoin (BTC): Institutional whales are frantically bottom fishing.
• BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF saw inflows of $1.45 billion in a single week, with assets under management exceeding $500 billion. Technical analysis shows $83,000 as a strong support level, and breaking through the $90,000 resistance will open up a $150,000-$200,000 upward channel.
• Key indicators: Exchange BTC balances drop to a historical low of 12%, long-term holders account for 65%, and supply-demand imbalance may trigger a 'liquidity crisis-like surge'.
2. Ethereum (ETH): The undervalued 'compliance engine'.
• Driven by L2 technology upgrades (e.g., ZK-Rollup daily transaction volume exceeding 50 million) and RWA (tokenization of physical assets) explosion, the ETH MVRV ratio at 0.9 is in a historical bottom range, on-chain data shows that whales purchased $660 million in ETH via DEX.
3. Meme coins: Retail investors' 'doomsday casino'.
• Trump Coin ($TRUMP) market cap surged to $14.5 billion, with four new Meme projects on the BNB chain exceeding a million in market cap in a single day. However, ARK Invest warns that meme coins worth over $2.6 trillion may go to zero—recommended strategy: small positions in new projects (like early staking on the XBIT platform), in-and-out quickly to avoid 'FOMO traps'.
3. Undercurrents: Three major trends determine your wealth code.
1. Battle for institutional pricing power.
• BlackRock, Fidelity, and others control ETF pricing power, MicroStrategy holds 200,000 BTC as a 'shadow central bank', and retail investors need to be wary of institutions repeating the 'pump-and-dump' script (refer to Coinbase's listing market in 2021).
2. Technological revolution: Balancing compliance and innovation.
• Ethereum's 'Surge' upgrade achieves 100,000 TPS, and DEXs like XBIT attract risk-averse funds through military-grade smart contracts. The future hinge lies in whether privacy technology (like compliant ZK-SNARKs) can meet anti-money laundering requirements.
3. Global liquidity redistribution.
• Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts + China's trillion-dollar hot money release make cryptocurrencies a core tool for 'inflation hedging'. Historical data shows that when the U.S. dollar index falls below 95, BTC's average increase reaches 217%.
4. Risk Warning: Fatal traps in the carnival.
Policy fluctuations: If U.S. inflation rebounds above 3%, the Federal Reserve may restart interest rate hikes, and the crypto market will face a 'Davis double kill'.
Technical black swan: Although XBIT passed CertiK audit, risks of attacks on DeFi protocols still exist (e.g., token unlocks at Polyhedra triggering sell-offs).
Geopolitical conflict: The European Central Bank plans to prohibit banks from holding BTC, and some countries may follow suit, leading to localized liquidity freezes.
5. Survival Guide: How can retail investors navigate bull and bear markets?
Core position (60%): BTC + ETH + compliant platforms (like XBIT, Coinbase), harness institutionalization benefits.
Trend bets (30%): RWA (like gold token SHB), AI public chains (FET, AGIX), laying out the next narrative.
Speculative position (10%): Meme coins need to set a 5% stop-loss line, only participating in new project launches (like Binance Launchpool).
Conclusion:
The 2025 crypto market will be a battleground for sovereign capital, tech elites, and retail sentiment. Remember—bull markets are born in pessimism, grow in skepticism, and die in euphoria. At this moment, you stand at a historical turning point; choosing is more important than working hard.
