1️⃣ Macro trigger: sentiment to 'end American exceptionalism' + US-UK trade agreement

  • After Trump announced 'Liberation Day tariffs' in early May, global capital continued to withdraw from dollar assets, seeking 'politically neutral' stores of value, with Bitcoin being the biggest beneficiary. In just three weeks, digital asset funds saw an influx of $5.5 billion, with $1.8 billion flowing into BTC products.

  • Last weekend, the US and UK reached their first trade agreement, and market expectations for tariff negotiations eased, boosting risk sentiment and pushing BTC to break the psychological barrier of $100,000.

Economic perspective: When sovereign credit is questioned, investors seek 'stateless' assets for intertemporal consumption smoothing (Permanent Income Hypothesis). BTC's 'digital gold' narrative and ETF liquidity bridge perfectly fit this alternative demand.

2️⃣ Bitcoin: ETF capital influx + short squeeze, is the technical indicator targeting $120K?

Funding situation: ETF net purchases broke records in a single week, quantitative funds followed suit to go long, creating a 'buying waterfall'.

  • Technical perspective: After the daily 50MA/200MA golden cross, the weekly Cup-and-Handle has completed its pullback, with traditional quantitative models giving a mid-term target of $120K.

  • Behavioral finance: A large number of retail investors anchor at the $100K integer level—if it breaks and stabilizes, the FOMO effect may accelerate the second wave of upward movement.

3️⃣ Ethereum: Pectra successfully launched, but 'good news priced in' led to a drop before stabilizing

  • On May 7, Ethereum completed its most significant Pectra upgrade since the merger, introducing 11 EIPs at once: account abstraction (EIP-7702), raising the validator cap to 2,048 ETH, etc.

  • The gasless USDC scenario on-chain post-upgrade has ignited developer enthusiasm, but in the short term, ETH price only rebounded by 2.7%, lagging far behind BTC.

    Economic interpretation: Technical externalities take time to translate into network value; under Metcalfe's law framework, the lagging growth of active addresses and TVL explains the phenomenon of 'technical benefits ≠ immediate surge'.

4️⃣ BNB Chain: Lorentz hard fork compresses block interval to 1.5 seconds ⚡️

  • The Lorentz hard fork (May 4) raised TPS and multiple times allowed daily fee revenue to surpass Ethereum, with on-chain active addresses breaking 1.06 million.

  • Decreased transaction costs activated DeFi and new issuance Launchpad, with BNB once touching $660 during trading, up 38% year-to-date.

    Risk warning: BNB is still constrained by centralized governance and regulatory investigations, it is recommended that positions be ≤ 10% of the portfolio.

5️⃣ Solana & Meme Season 2: ⛵️ Chain speed + meme faster

  • Technical perspective: Solana's daily chart also shows a Cup-and-Handle, with the market anticipating rumors of the first SOL ETF in the US, targeting a price level of $500.

  • Meme resurgence: MOODENG, PNUT, GOAT weekly gains of 50%–200%, community trading volume returned to $800M+. CCN.com

  • WIF (Dogwifhat) leveraged Binance listing and trending Reddit posts to become the 'hottest meme coin of the month'. changelly.com

    Behavioral model: Solana low fees + high-frequency minting → 'lottery effect', short-term volatility surges, Kelly formula shows no heavy positions.

6️⃣ Strategy suggestion: 'Emotional return curve' for ordinary investors

Risk warning

The crypto market is highly volatile, leverage and derivatives can quickly amplify losses. Please manage your positions according to your risk tolerance and do not blindly chase highs.


💡 One-sentence summary

When macro clouds and technical upgrades intertwine, capital is voting with real money: if 'all fires burn together' continues, the second movement may already be in the overture; but the hotter it gets, the calmer we need to be. Capture the trend, but don’t forget to buckle your seatbelt.

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This article does not constitute investment advice, the market is risky, investment should be cautious. Market conditions change rapidly, please refer to real-time data.