I. Bitcoin (BTC): The Three Major Engines Behind the Historical New Highs

'$100,000 is just the starting point!'

Currently, Bitcoin firmly stands above $103,000, consolidating over the weekend, market expectations for it to hit $120,000 continue to heat up. The core logic driving this round of market is threefold:

  1. Policy Tailwind: The US Treasury pauses the sale of 214,000 BTC reserves, the Trump administration plans to build a 'dollar-bitcoin dual anchor system', Bitcoin is first given 'strategic asset' attributes.

  2. Institutional Buying: Bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock and others see net inflows exceeding $740 million in a single day, with holdings surpassing 614,000 BTC, miners' daily selling volume only 200-300 BTC, supply-demand imbalance intensifies.

  3. Technical Breakthrough: Bitcoin breaks through the monthly downward channel, MACD golden cross confirmed, Standard Chartered predicts a year-end target price of $200,000.

Ordinary Investor Strategy: Accumulate in batches as the price pulls back to the $102,000-$101,000 range, set stop loss below $100,500; chase the price if it breaks above $104,500, targeting $106,000-$108,000.

II. Ethereum (ETH): Catch-up window opens, is $2600 just a warm-up?

'The sleeping giant will eventually awaken!'

Ethereum surges 13% in the short term, surpassing $2586, with perfect volume-price coordination. Core catalysts include:

  • Technical Upgrade: Pectra upgrade reduces Layer2 costs, annualized staking yield rises to 4.8%, attracting institutions like MicroStrategy.

  • Ecosystem Explosion: RWA (Real World Assets) sector saw a weekly increase of 330%, such as BlackRock issuing a $500 million tokenized fund.

  • Capital Rotation: ETH/BTC exchange rate rebounds above 0.02, altcoin quarterly index surges 56% in 4 days, market enters 'catch-up time'.

Operation Reminder: Beware of pullbacks in case of short-term overbought, $2380-2400 is the ideal entry point for long positions, target above $2600.

III. Altcoin Frenzy: The 'Get Rich Quick Code' and Deadly Traps of SOL, BNB, and Meme Coins

  1. Solana (SOL): High Returns and High Risks Coexist

    Recently, SOL broke through $170, with staking yields reaching 8.3%, but high-leverage shorts frequently face liquidation (a certain whale lost $1.05 million in a single day).

  2. RWA + AI sector explodes, ONDO, FET, and other ecological tokens saw weekly increases of over 200%.

  3. Binance Coin (BNB): CZ's New Policy Ignites the 'Fee Reduction Revolution'

    BNB chain Gas fees are set to be cut by 90%, benchmarked against Ethereum's EIP-4844, stimulating the price to surge to $642, with RSI overbought but daily trading volume surpassing 340,000.

    Key Node: The voting results of the BEP-336 proposal will determine whether it can hold above $700.

  4. Meme Coins: Emotion-Driven 'Meat Grinder'

    TRUMP, PEPE, LLJEFFY, etc. saw a weekly increase of 300%, but project teams often run away and fake news manipulation occurs frequently (such as the LLJEFFY founder's fake death scam causing a price drop of 87%).

  5. Survival Rule: Position ≤ 5%, strictly enforce profit taking and stop-loss, stay away from high funding rate contracts.

IV. Economic Perspective: How to Understand the Nature of the 2025 'Policy Bull'?

  1. Supply and Demand Theory: Bitcoin supply tightens after halving, combined with a decline in US bond yields, capital shifts from traditional assets to the crypto market.

  2. Behavioral Finance: The easing of Trump's tariff policy improves risk appetite, and the FOMO sentiment in Meme coins reflects the market speculative cycle reaching its peak.

  3. Monetary Policy Transmission: The expectation of a Fed rate cut is postponed to December, but the crypto market has already priced it in, creating an 'expectation difference' arbitrage space.

V. Ultimate Advice for Ordinary Investors

  1. Position Management: BTC + ETH base position ratio ≥ 60%, altcoins ≤ 20%, leverage ≤ 3x.

  2. Event Driven: Pay attention to the May 15 US CPI data, G7 summit, and layout hedging positions in advance.

  3. Long-Termism: Bitcoin typically reaches historical highs 12-18 months after halving, currently in the mid-cycle, patience is more important than technique.

Conclusion:

'Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow in skepticism, and die in euphoria.' — Jesse Livermore

The crypto market in 2025 will be a battlefield where policy dividends and bubbles dance together. Ordinary investors must remain rational to preserve wealth in the frenzy and even rewrite their fate.


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This article does not constitute investment advice, the market is risky, and caution is needed when entering the market. The market changes rapidly, please refer to real-time data.

#BTC走势分析