👀 Key Points from the Federal Reserve's March Interest Rate Meeting

1. Timeline:

1. Rate decision announcement at 2:00 AM on the 20th (99% expectation that rates will remain unchanged.)

2. Powell's press conference at 2:30 AM on the 20th (market sentiment indicator)

2. Key Observational Indicators

Rate dot plot forecast:

• 3 rate cuts: Bullish for stocks/crypto

• Maintaining 1 rate cut: May trigger a sell-off

• Compromise with 2 rate cuts: Market reaction neutral

3. QT Tapering Process: Highly likely to announce a halt to tapering, releasing liquidity benefits

4. BTC Market

1. Technical Analysis:

Benchmark target: 84.5K-85K

Breakthrough resistance: Looking up to 90K

Pullback support: 80K-81K

2. Z-factor impact

Dovish signals: Bullish for crypto

Hawkish stance: Facing short-term downward pressure

Halting tapering: Medium to long-term liquidity injection benefits

The market expects a 99% probability that there will be no rate cut this time. Powell's speech and economic forecast summary will become key signals for potential future rate cuts. #美联储3月利率决议