This week, after a surge, the market has entered a phase of consolidation, with both bulls and bears undergoing a period of settlement. Institutions and retail investors need to digest short-term volatility risks. The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has not materialized, leading to potential pullback pressure in the market; it is advisable to primarily observe.
BTC is only 5% away from its historical high, but the potential pullback risks (such as insufficient liquidity and technical overbought conditions) are significantly higher than the return potential. Be cautious of chasing highs and wait for opportunities to enter after a pullback (after five consecutive weeks of gains, corrections should be watched for).
BTC Technical Analysis: Consolidation Range and Support/Resistance
4-hour level: Top consolidation (102,360-104,365), lacking liquidity.
Key resistance level: 104,365 (after breaking through, resistance at 105,300-106,400)
Support level: 102,360 (if broken, support at 100,900-97,700)
Risk Avoidance: Avoid chasing prices during the consolidation phase, prioritize waiting for a directional choice.
ETH Technical Analysis: Consolidation Range and Support/Resistance
4H level: Top consolidation (2,270-2,389), with increased correlation to BTC.
Key resistance level: 2,389 (after breaking through, resistance at 2,435-2,550)
Support level: 2,270 (if broken, support at 2,110-2,155)
Altcoin rebound logic: If BTC stabilizes, some high liquidity altcoins (such as BNB/SOL) may follow in a rebound, but be cautious of liquidity risks during pullbacks.
Position Management: Gradually reduce positions during the rise (such as after the Yingli market), to avoid passively holding positions in a one-sided market.
Risk Control Priority: Set stop-losses (such as if breaking below key support levels by 10%), to avoid profit drawdowns.
The current rise is driven by favorable news (panic buying), lacking sustained incremental funds, with a high probability of pullback.
Right-side traders wait for pullback confirmations, while left-side traders should cautiously test long positions with strict stop-losses.
The short-term market is at a critical juncture, it is recommended to focus on defensive strategies, and closely observe the Federal Reserve's policy direction and BTC/ETH technical breakout signals.
