金乐圣

👀 You once dared to copy Ethereum at 3000, now at around 1550 ETH, are you sure you want to hold back? 🙈$ETH

👀 Fun has finally arrived! Half position reduced $FUN

👀 Fun has been added, 🈳！$FUN

👀 Fun waited all day, 0.00785 it's time, shorted, set your stop-loss!

👀 SEC Crypto Roundtable, April 11, 25, May 12, and June 6, four strikes! Discussing DeFi and tokenization. Find quality targets and fasten your seatbelt!

👀 In the past 7 days, Pendle's performance has consistently outperformed the DeFi market. Over the past two weeks, the price has increased by 🔝+45%! As expected, it has entered the resistance zone. $PENDLE

👀 Render, as expected! In the past two weeks +40%, above 3.9, breaking the downward consolidation pattern, the next resistance to watch is 4.1, 4.7! $RENDER

👀 The historical oversold signal for ETH has been triggered again! Three similar scenarios.

1. 2018 Bear Market: After being oversold, it entered an upward cycle, eventually reaching an all-time high in 2021;

2. 2021 Terra Collapse: After a short-term crash, there was a rebound that restored the oversold indicators;

3. 2016 DAO Hacker Incident: Despite extreme selling pressure, it still achieved value recovery, laying the foundation for long-term ecological resilience.

Currently, ETH is hovering around $2000, with technical indicators highly aligned with historical oversold points.

If we follow the cyclical pattern, the $2000-$1800 range may represent a strategic positioning opportunity.

Note: Market volatility risks still exist, but historical backtesting shows that the average annualized return rate after being oversold is significantly higher than the normal range.$ETH

🙈 ETH has been stagnant for two weeks, finally breaking through the 1950 resistance wall, soaring past the 2000 mark, escaping the box structure. The FOMC interest rate decision and Chairman Powell's speech at dawn, hold on tight, buckle up for the companion at 1850. $ETH

👀 PENDLE is significantly undervalued, with an FDV of only $616 million (62% of tokens are in circulation), but its TVL continues to reach new highs at 2.37 million ETH, ranking among the top six DeFi protocols, and is one of the few protocols that achieve substantial real returns.

As one of the leading protocols in the integration of DeFi and RWA, it adopts a profit-sharing model and has long-term sustainability; if it stabilizes above the key resistance level of $2.4, it is expected to aim for a range of $2.9 to $3.4 in the short term, with a potential short-term increase of 21%-42%.

Compared to similar protocols (such as UNI and AAVE), PENDLE shows significant undervaluation in both the TVL/valuation ratio and actual return capability dimensions. $PENDLE

👀 Key Points from the Federal Reserve's March Interest Rate Meeting

1. Timeline:
1. Rate decision announcement at 2:00 AM on the 20th (99% expectation that rates will remain unchanged.)

2. Powell's press conference at 2:30 AM on the 20th (market sentiment indicator)

2. Key Observational Indicators
Rate dot plot forecast:
• 3 rate cuts: Bullish for stocks/crypto
• Maintaining 1 rate cut: May trigger a sell-off
• Compromise with 2 rate cuts: Market reaction neutral

3. QT Tapering Process: Highly likely to announce a halt to tapering, releasing liquidity benefits

4. BTC Market
1. Technical Analysis:
Benchmark target: 84.5K-85K
Breakthrough resistance: Looking up to 90K
Pullback support: 80K-81K

2. Z-factor impact
Dovish signals: Bullish for crypto
Hawkish stance: Facing short-term downward pressure
Halting tapering: Medium to long-term liquidity injection benefits

The market expects a 99% probability that there will be no rate cut this time. Powell's speech and economic forecast summary will become key signals for potential future rate cuts. #美联储3月利率决议

👀 Market Focus Update 3/18

【Core Schedule】
▶ 3/19 BOJ Interest Rate Decision (Expected to remain at 0.5%)
▶ 3/20 Fed Interest Rate Decision (98% probability to maintain interest rates)

【Policy Game】
1. Central Bank Coordination: Strengthened expectations for synchronized stabilization by Japan and the US, Trump's trade policy first included in the pricing system.
2. Fed Path: Neutral stance continues, focus on dot plot interest rate guidance and 'dual tightening' risk scenario analysis.

【BTC Strategy Analysis】
◼ Technical Pattern: Sideways consolidation at the middle track of 83000 daily line, breakout direction depends on policy resonance
◼ Key Game: Unexpected rate hike by BOJ/Fed hawkish comments may trigger selling pressure
◼ Support and Resistance: BTC support at 80,000-82,000 / resistance at 85,300; ETH range 1,875-1,950

【Selected News】
1. Regulatory Trends: SEC crypto working group will hold a roundtable on the 21st, Hashdex's application for ETF inclusion of SOL/XRP/ADA has been approved.

2. Institutional Actions: WLFI strategic reserve adds BTC/ETH and 6 other cryptocurrencies, US BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $274 million yesterday.

3. Personnel Changes: Trump appoints Bowman as Vice Chair for Supervision at the Fed, will sign Executive Order Z on the same day.

4. Ecosystem Progress: a16z releases ElizaOS v2 beta, Apt launches LFM ecosystem support plan.

☕️ GM, happy weekend, everyone!

Market Overview on March 15:

【Market Review】
• BTC Fluctuation Range: 82900-85300 (failed to stabilize at 85k).
• Macroeconomic Drivers: U.S. stocks closed up + U.S. government shutdown risk alleviated.
• Market Sentiment: Fear Index returned to neutral at 46 (liquidity-sensitive period: Sunday night to Monday when U.S. stocks open).

【Macroeconomic Focus】 Preview of the Federal Reserve Meeting on 3/20:
1. Policy Tone: The intensity of Powell's statements on economic recession.
2. Interest Rate Path: Whether the expectation of three rate cuts this year can continue.
3. Balance Sheet Reduction Pace: Potential slowdown/pausing possibilities.

【Strategy Suggestions】
Position Management: Maintain a neutral position (around 50%).
Breakthrough Opportunity: If the macro environment releases dovish signals + alleviation of geopolitical risks, the probability of BTC hitting 90k exceeds 60%.
Altcoin Layout: Focus on varieties that have shown signs of starting, and increase positions once the trend becomes clear.

【Technical Support】
BTC Key Levels for the Day: 82900 (Support) | 85300 (Resistance)
ETH Dynamic Range: 1850-1890 (Support Zone) | 1950 (Key Resistance)

(Note: The core trading logic for next week revolves around the Federal Reserve meeting, it is recommended to maintain flexible positions before Wednesday)

RNDR, as a benchmark project in the AI + DePIN track of the Sol ecosystem, continuously demonstrates technological advantages against the backdrop of surging AI computing power demand, thanks to its unique model of integrating distributed GPU resources. After a correction of 2.52, it has currently stabilized in the support zone of 3-2.8 and tested the resistance range of 3.16-3.25, with market buying pressure continuously accumulating. If it breaks through the critical level of 3.25, it is expected to initiate a new round of upward movement. The render technology architecture is deeply aligned with the needs of AI rendering and distributed computing, combined with the development dividends of the Sol ecosystem, making it a highly elastic target of key focus. $RENDER

The pendulum always swings between excessive optimism and excessive pessimism, and smart traders always sow in pessimism. $BTC $ETH

👀 ETH has picked up a resurrection armor? Ready to teeter-totter with BTC! It seems the bulls at 1850 can start doing sit-ups! 🤣$ETH

🙈 Unfortunately, last night Sol was just 0.1% away from victory!
The governance proposal SIMD-0228 for Sol failed to pass by a narrow margin (Yes votes 61.39%, needed 66.67%). The proposal aimed to significantly reduce the SOL inflation rate by 80% through a dynamic adjustment mechanism.

Although the proposal failed, there is still good news for the market: the SEC has accepted Franklin Templeton's application for a spot SOL ETF, and CME will launch Sol futures on March 17, paving the way for subsequent compliance processes. #solana $SOL

👀 ETH core developers announce that the Hooli testnet will launch on March 17 as the final testing environment for the Pectra upgrade. The specific timeline is as follows:

1. March 17: Hooli testnet goes live;
2. March 26: Execution of Pectra upgrade testing;
3. 30 days after successful testing (expected from late April to early May): Official deployment of the mainnet.

The Hooli testnet aims to address the failure issues encountered by Pectra in the Sepolia and Holesky testnets, ensuring a smooth implementation of the upgrade through more comprehensive validation. #Eth #pectra

👀 The Trump family's WLFI has set its sights on SEI again, acquiring 540,000 SEI today at $0.18, bringing the total holdings to over 1.08 million (approximately $206,000). This round of replenishment has me, an old holder, shaking in fear, as SEI has just bounced back to its original price of $0.195 today. Is the big boss here to cut me off?

Although I am optimistic about Sei's potential in the DeFi and L1, L2 sectors in the long term, one must also be cautious of "the wise king's dovish signals"! Keep a close eye on the support line of $0.17-$0.18; if it breaks, we need to prepare for the rooftop story script.🙈$SEI

After the positive impact of CPI, the risk market shows a divergence in trends, with US stocks leading the way (S&P 500 and Nvidia performing strongly), and market expectations for a rate cut in July rising. Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, especially due to concerns about the Trump variable, with funds showing a wait-and-see attitude.

BTC: Failed to break through the key resistance level of 85,000, and may oscillate in the range of 80,000 to 85,000 dollars in the short term, with a need to pay attention to changes in macro liquidity.

ETH: Continues to perform weakly, with a key support level around 1,800 dollars, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate recovery opportunity is worth noting.

In the altcoin sector: RWA, AI, modular public chains, and other tracks are active; in the short term, attention can be given to ONDO (RWA), RENDER (AI computing power), TIA (modular), SUI (high-performance chain), NEAR (sharding expansion), JTO (Solana ecosystem), PENDLE (interest rate derivatives), and other targets.