Global central banks and the crypto market's choices amid the data storm

1. Global central banks’ “serial bombardment”: policy game reconstructs market liquidity expectations

Federal Reserve interest rate decision (2:00 am, March 20, Beijing time)

The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, but the focus is on the latest "dot plot" and Powell's statement. Current CME data shows that the probability of a rate cut in March is only 2%, and the probability of a rate cut in May has also dropped to 27.7%. Analysis points out that the Fed is facing a "dilemma": if Trump's tariff policy pushes up inflation (consumers' long-term inflation expectations have soared to 3.9%, the largest increase in 30 years), it may be forced to delay rate cuts; if the risk of economic recession increases, it will need to ease in advance. This policy ambiguity may exacerbate market volatility, and Bitcoin may become a risk hedging tool.

Bank of Japan interest rate decision (March 19)

Although there have been rumors of ending negative interest rates, most institutions predict that they will remain on hold. If Japan maintains its loose policy, yen carry trading funds may continue to flow into the crypto market. It is worth noting that Japanese investors are an important group of Bitcoin holders, and a policy shift may cause fluctuations in the capital chain.

ECB decision (March 21)

The market expects the ECB to cut interest rates by 25BP to 2.5%, which is already its sixth rate cut. However, the yield of European bonds has risen sharply recently due to the expectation of defense spending (the yield of German 10-year government bonds rose by 49BP in a single week). The contradiction between monetary policy and fiscal policy may weaken the easing effect and indirectly affect the pricing of risky assets.

2. The “nuclear-bomb-level impact” of economic data: the struggle between retail data and inflation expectations

U.S. February retail sales data (March 17)

The data is called "horror data". If it is weak (combined with the consumer confidence index, which has plummeted to 57.9, a new low since 2022), it may strengthen expectations of economic recession and promote the safe-haven demand for Bitcoin as "digital gold". On the contrary, if the data is strong, it may consolidate the Fed's hawkish stance and be bearish for the crypto market in the short term.

Global inflation transmission chain

Trump's tariff policy has caused consumers' one-year inflation expectations to jump to 4.9%, and Bitcoin's 21 million upper limit mechanism makes it an anti-inflation target. It is predicted that if the Federal Reserve is forced to maintain high interest rates for a long time, institutional funds may accelerate the allocation of Bitcoin to hedge the risk of legal currency depreciation.

3. Bitcoin technical aspects: key support and breakthrough signals

Bullish and bearish watershed: The current Bitcoin price fluctuates around $83,748. $81,000 is a strong support at the weekly level. A break below this level may trigger a leverage liquidation wave to $76,000. If it breaks through the previous high of $94,000, it is expected to hit the psychological barrier of $100,000.

On-chain data indicators: The NVT ratio (network value/transaction volume) is currently 31.5, which is in the fair valuation range. Long-term investors may view the pullback as an opportunity to increase their positions.

4. Black swans and catalysts: policy mutations and institutional trends

Trump's Crypto Strategic Reserve

The U.S. government plans to establish a strategic reserve of assets including Bitcoin and Ethereum. If this move is implemented, it will subvert the traditional sovereign fund allocation logic and inject hundreds of billions of dollars of liquidity into the crypto market.

Geopolitical risk premium

The escalation of the US-EU tariff war (such as the imposition of a 200% tariff on alcoholic beverages) may cause turbulence in the global trade chain, driving the demand for Bitcoin as a "decentralized safe haven." It is predicted that with each escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the central price of Bitcoin may move up by 5-8%.

5. Ultimate deduction: Bitcoin path under three scenarios

Neutral scenario (50% probability): The Fed maintains "vague guidance" + retail data is in line with expectations, Bitcoin fluctuates in the range of US$80,000-94,000, waiting for policy signals in May.

Bullish scenario (30% probability): Weak U.S. economic data + unexpected easing by the European and Japanese central banks, capital pours into the crypto market, breaking through $100,000 and hitting $125,000# (Fibonacci extension level).

Bear market scenario (probability 20%): Strong retail data + the Federal Reserve hints at a delay in rate cuts, triggering a sell-off in risky assets, and Bitcoin retreats to the $76,000 support level, but long-term holders may buy on dips.

Conclusion: This "super week" will be a touchstone for the demarcation of Bitcoin bulls and bears. Short-term volatility may reach 20%, but in the medium and long term, the forecast model shows that there is still a 35% probability that Bitcoin will exceed $170,000 in 2025. Investors need to pay attention to the wording of "expectation management" in the policy statement (such as whether the Fed deletes the "remain restrictive" statement) and be wary of the "long and short double kill" risk of leveraged contracts. #核弹周 $BTC