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Next week will be a nuclear-level data week! Bitcoin's "super week" game: 100,000 charge or 70,000 callback?
Global central banks and the crypto market's choices amid the data storm
1. Global central banks’ “serial bombardment”: policy game reconstructs market liquidity expectations
Federal Reserve interest rate decision (2:00 am, March 20, Beijing time)
The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, but the focus is on the latest "dot plot" and Powell's statement. Current CME data shows that the probability of a rate cut in March is only 2%, and the probability of a rate cut in May has also dropped to 27.7%. Analysis points out that the Fed is facing a "dilemma": if Trump's tariff policy pushes up inflation (consumers' long-term inflation expectations have soared to 3.9%, the largest increase in 30 years), it may be forced to delay rate cuts; if the risk of economic recession increases, it will need to ease in advance. This policy ambiguity may exacerbate market volatility, and Bitcoin may become a risk hedging tool.
1. Global central banks’ “serial bombardment”: policy game reconstructs market liquidity expectations
Federal Reserve interest rate decision (2:00 am, March 20, Beijing time)
The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, but the focus is on the latest "dot plot" and Powell's statement. Current CME data shows that the probability of a rate cut in March is only 2%, and the probability of a rate cut in May has also dropped to 27.7%. Analysis points out that the Fed is facing a "dilemma": if Trump's tariff policy pushes up inflation (consumers' long-term inflation expectations have soared to 3.9%, the largest increase in 30 years), it may be forced to delay rate cuts; if the risk of economic recession increases, it will need to ease in advance. This policy ambiguity may exacerbate market volatility, and Bitcoin may become a risk hedging tool.
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