1. The rise of Bitcoin and the influence of politics
Statement:
The price of Bitcoin is rising amid support from Donald Trump, who signed a decree to create a strategic reserve of Bitcoins and a stock of digital assets and stimulate mining. Further growth is anticipated, especially in the context of a decrease in the Fed's key interest rate.
Facts and analysis:
Historical context: Bitcoin indeed shows volatility, but the long-term trend is growth. After the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in the USA in 2024, institutional investors increased their investments, pushing the price to new highs.
Trump's role: Politicians can influence the market in the short term, but fundamental growth is related to the adoption of cryptocurrencies in the traditional financial system. The example of El Salvador, which legalized Bitcoin, showed that mass adoption takes time and infrastructure.
Risks: Politician statements are not guarantees. Regulatory changes (e.g., tightening control by the SEC) can trigger market corrections.
2. Decentralization and blockchain: revolution or evolution?
Statement:
Blockchain will replace centralized systems in medicine, logistics, and finance, ensuring security and transparency. Decentralization will reduce the risks of cyberattacks and data manipulation.
Facts and analysis:
Successful cases:
Medicine: Projects like MediBloc (South Korea) store patient histories on the blockchain, giving them control over their data.
Logistics: IBM Food Trust tracks food supply chains, reducing falsifications.
Problems:
Scalability: Blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently struggling with high loads (Ethereum processes ~30 transactions per second compared to 24,000 for Visa).
Regulation: The implementation of blockchain in the public sector requires legislative changes, which is happening slowly (for example, the EU is only developing regulations for NFTs).
Conclusion: Blockchain is a complement, not a replacement for traditional systems. Its niche is in areas where security and decentralization are critically important.
3. The trend towards renting instead of owning: reality or exaggeration?
Statement:
By 2040, tangible goods (real estate, cars) will be available only by subscription or rental. Owning assets will become impossible due to inflation and lending policies.
Facts and analysis:
Current trends:
Real estate: In the USA, 35% of households rent their homes. In Moscow, rental prices are rising due to price unavailability (1 sq. m - from 300,000 rubles).
Cars: Services like Yandex.Drive and BelkaCar are gaining popularity, but 72% of Russians still prefer personal cars (according to Rosstat).
Reasons:
Inflation: From 2010 to 2024, the ruble depreciated by 300%, making savings ineffective.
Subscription economy: Netflix, Spotify have accustomed people to the model of 'access instead of ownership', but it is more difficult for expensive assets.
Predictions:
By 2040, the share of rentals will increase, but a complete rejection of ownership is unlikely. For example, in Sweden, where the rental of housing is 60%, there is still demand for mortgages.
4. Recommendations: how to adapt to changes
1. Invest in crypto assets cautiously:
The share of cryptocurrencies in a portfolio should not exceed 5-10%.
Choose liquid assets: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana.
2. Study blockchain technologies:
Courses on Coursera (e.g., 'Blockchain Basics' from the University at Buffalo).
Participate in testnets (e.g., Starknet, EigenLayer) to understand ecosystems.
3. Diversify assets:
Combine real estate, stocks, cryptocurrencies, and gold.
Consider REITs (real estate investment trusts) for access to the rental business without direct ownership.
4. Keep an eye on regulatory changes:
- Monitor laws on digital assets (in Russia - the law 'On Digital Financial Assets').
Conclusion
The financial landscape is changing, but there is no need to panic. The key to success is adaptability and education. Blockchain and cryptocurrencies open up new opportunities but require a critical approach. Renting and subscriptions are part of the evolution of consumption, but private ownership will remain the foundation of the economy.
P.S. Predictions about a 'world without ownership' are often exaggerated. As history shows, markets change cyclically, and those who invest time in analysis rather than follow the hype come out ahead.